Magnificent Seven member Apple has seen its stock come under pressure in recent weeks. As Wall Street tries to predict the trough, Morgan Stanley thinks there may be more room to go lower before the stock reaches its lowest point. Apple shares are down 14% after peaking in mid-July. The stock began declining sharply after the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings release , in which it forecast a fall in revenue in the September quarter. Apple also reported that overall sales fell 1% as iPhone, iPad and Mac sales weakened. While the company officially released the iPhone 15 line on Sept. 15 to lead times near all-time records, Morgan Stanley noted that investor sentiment remains “overwhelming[ly] bearish on Apple.” Concerns of competition from Huawei in China have led many on the Street to forecast iPhone units falling year over year in the 2024 fiscal year, according to analyst Erik Woodring. Nonetheless, Woodring noted this isn’t the first time the tech giant has seen such a sharp sell-off in shares and that a rally may be ahead. “Over the past 5 years, there have been 7 times where Apple shares have fallen 15%+. On average during these periods, shares have fallen ~25% from peak to trough, indicating there could be more downside from here, with shares likely to find support around $160 (down 20% from the peak),” Woodring said. Within three months after the stock trough, Apple has managed to outperform the broad market index by 10 to 15 percentage points on average, the analyst noted. Within six to 12 months following the low, the stock typically manages to outperform by 25 to 30 percentage points, he added. The bank is looking toward iPhone build reports from Asia in the next seven to 10 days, which it says will be the next key catalyst that informs how the current cycle is trending. Shares are up 33% year to date. AAPL YTD mountain AAPL in 2023 — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
