Barack Obama recorded the best S&P 500 performance in a first term out of the last 5 presidents
George W. Bush was the only president out of the last 5 to record a negative S&P 500 return at the end of his first term
Democratic presidents have had a higher average return in the S&P 500 in both their first and second terms in office.
The S&P 500 is currently as of 8 September up 15.72% from the start of President Joe Biden’s term as president of the United States on the 20th of January 2021, according to research from personal finance website finder.com.
Joe Biden’s first term in office is over halfway through and the former vice president has navigated the country through the second half of the covid pandemic, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since the start of Biden’s term in office, the value of the S&P 500 has grown by a mere 15.72%.
Former President Donald Trump’s first term saw the S&P 500 rise by 67.26%, leading the country from 2017 all the way through to 2021. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 was down 1.47% since the start of Trump’s term on the 23rd of March 2020, with the pandemic breaking up an initial period of growth. However, the pandemic stock boom saw the S&P 500 rise again until the end of Trump’s first term.
Out of the last 5 presidents, 3 saw an increased value of the S&P 500 in their first term and Biden is on track to accomplish the same feat. President Barack Obama saw the S&P 500 increase by 84.54% at the end of his first term, from the day he took office, marking the highest increase out of the last 5 presidents.
President Obama took over the presidency towards the end of the financial crisis of 2009, leading to high growth from an initially weak stock market.
Democratic presidents have had a higher average return in the S&P 500 in both their first and second terms in office. On average democratic leaders have yielded 59.83% in their first term, whilst republican leaders have only managed 27.11%. Meanwhile in their second term democrats returned 62.59%, whilst the only republican president out of the last five presidents leading the country for a second term, returned -27.20% in his second term.
The only president to record negative returns at the end of their first and second terms was President George W. Bush, registering -13.04% in the S&P 500 at the end of his first term and -27.20% from the start of his second term to the end of his second term. President Bush led the country during the Iraq War and during most of the financial crisis, leading to costly losses in the stock market.
President Bill Clinton only saw the S&P 500 drop below the level it was when he took office on two market days in his 2029 market day run as president. This means that 99.9% of market days under Bill Clinton’s tenure saw the value of the S&P 500 be greater than when he took over.
Former President Donald Trump was close to equalling Bill Clinton, with only 2 market days out of a total of 1005 having negative returns compared to his first day in office. However, as a percentage of his term this is slightly less, with 99.80%
Meanwhile, only 405 out of 2011 total market days in office for George W. Bush saw an increase in the value of the S&P 500 compared to the day he took office. Therefore, 79.86% of market days during his presidency recorded a lower value of the S&P 500 than the day he took office.
