The International Energy Agency (IEA) says renewables and AI are reshaping the world’s energy future, and that transformation is happening faster than anyone expected. In its new “World Energy Outlook 2025,” the IEA warns that energy security risks now stretch far beyond oil and gas. Critical minerals essential to clean tech, defense, and AI have become the new fault lines in global supply chains. The IEA also states that energy has become a central focus of geopolitical power struggles, making it one of the defining economic and security challenges of our time.
A more complex, electrified future
The IEA’s annual “World Energy Outlook” explores three possible scenarios for the future, emphasizing that none are predictions. Instead, they’re roadmaps that show what could happen depending on the choices governments and industries make on policy, technology, and investment.
Across every scenario, one theme stands out: electricity demand is surging faster than for any other form of energy. Electricity currently accounts for only about 20% of global energy use, yet it powers more than 40% of the global economy. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said the trend is accelerating: “Last year, we said the world was moving quickly into the Age of Electricity – and it’s clear today that it has already arrived.”
Driving that growth are data centers, AI, and electrification across transportation, heating, and manufacturing. Global data center investment alone is expected to hit $580 billion in 2025 – even higher than the $540 billion the world will spend on oil supply.
Shifting global energy dynamics
Emerging economies, led by India and Southeast Asia, are now shaping energy markets that were once dominated by China. These regions are experiencing a rapid increase in demand for power, mobility, and industrial energy use. By 2035, 80% of global energy consumption growth is expected to come from countries with high solar potential.
At the same time, the IEA warns that grid expansion and storage aren’t keeping up with this growth. While investments in power generation have jumped nearly 70% since 2015, spending on transmission and distribution has risen at less than half that pace. The agency calls for urgent grid upgrades and stronger government coordination to prevent future electricity bottlenecks.
Renewables and nuclear on the rise
Solar leads the charge across all IEA scenarios, with renewables growing at a faster rate than any other energy source. Nuclear energy is also making a comeback: after two decades of stagnation, global nuclear capacity is projected to increase by at least a third by 2035, thanks to both large-scale projects and small modular reactor designs.
Dave Jones, chief analyst at global energy think tank Ember, said, “The world is moving in the right direction, and continued acceleration can drive a more rapid transformation of the energy system. Renewables and electrification will dominate the future – and fossil-importing nations will gain the most by embracing them.”
Energy access and climate urgency
The IEA highlights two critical areas where the world is falling short: universal access to energy and climate goals. Roughly 730 million people still live without electricity, and nearly 2 billion rely on polluting cooking methods. Even in the agency’s most ambitious pathways, global temperatures surpass 1.5C of warming before potentially returning below that level later in the century.
Meanwhile, the effects of climate change are already disrupting energy systems. In 2023 alone, over 200 million households worldwide were affected by energy infrastructure failures, with transmission lines accounting for about 85% of incidents. The IEA says governments must prioritize resilience not only against extreme weather but also against cyberattacks and supply chain shocks.
Birol summed it up: “When we look at the history of the energy world in recent decades, there is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once. With energy security front and center for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals – on affordability, access, competitiveness, and climate change.”
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