It is time for investors to buckle up as a strong first quarter could be followed by a frightful year, according to CFRA’s Sam Stovall. Stocks are coming off a historically strong start to the year, with the S & P 500 registering its best first quarter going back to 2019. However, the broad market index kicked off the second quarter on a sour note , losing more than 1% as the 10-year Treasury note yield hit its highest level since November on fears that Federal Reserve rate cuts may not arrive as soon as expected. .SPX 1D mountain S & P 500 History shows investors should expect volatility can continue, according to Stovall. A strong first quarter typically suggests a good second quarter, the strategist found. He noted the 15 strongest first-quarter returns since World War II, which have averaged a 12.5% advance, were followed by second quarters that averaged a 3.7% increase. However, it could also mean equities are more vulnerable to significant setbacks from here. After 13 of those 15 strongest first quarters, the S & P 500 registered “intrayear” declines of 5% or more. The average loss during those periods was more than 11%. “So, it could end up being a very volatile year,” Stovall told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. Investors have been taking profits this week after stronger economic data implied the Federal Reserve could be slower to cut interest rates than previously anticipated, or wind up lowering them fewer times than the three the Fed has forecast. But Stovall noted history shows stocks could still come out on top and said investors should stick with their winning positions. For example, tech stocks, which are off to a weak start in the second quarter, could still be an outperformer when 2024 comes to an end, he said. “Despite the drop off in returns in Q2 versus Q1, the increased likelihood of one or two intra-year declines, and the potential pickup in average daily volatility, 14 of these 15 years ended up with double-digit full-year price increases averaging nearly 23%,” Stovall wrote in a Monday note. “Only one — 1987 — ended up with a low single-digit annual advance.” “So, in other words, this strong start implies a frightful yet fulfilling full-year performance for the S & P 500,” he said.
