Airbnb shares could rebound as the company accelerates its bookings growth and launches new products, according to Jefferies. Analyst John Colantuoni upgraded shares to buy from hold and increased his price target by $20 to $185, which suggests the stock can gain more than 37% from its latest close. This year, the stock is up 2.3% — outperforming the broader market and making a slight recovery from its 18.5% loss over the past 12 months as investors remain impressed by the Airbnb’s stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings . “ABNB’s attractive growth, impressive free cash flow generation, and large competitive moat justify a premium multiple,” Colantuoni said in a Monday note to clients. He said his estimates on Airbnb’s lodging business are justified given the company’s insulation from artificial intelligence. But beyond lodging, the analyst noted that investors aren’t exactly pricing in Airbnb’s new products, such as experiences. “We believe lodging share gains will be augmented by increased adoption of experiences, an opportunity ABNB is uniquely well positioned to capture,” he said. “In addition, we [estimate] that growth is further bolstered by take rate upside, driven mostly by the launch of sponsored listings. Our analysis shows the core lodging business alone is worth ABNB’s current value, implying zero is being ascribed to experiences or take rate.” ABNB 1Y mountain Airbnb stock performance. Most of Colantuoni’s bullish price target relies on his forecast that there’s significant room for Airbnb to grow its lodging business. The analyst noted that the company has delivered bookings growth for four straight years and saw its bookings growth accelerate to its highest level in nearly two years in the last quarter, benefiting from investing in expansion markets. “Recent results underscore ABNB’s long runway for share gains in lodging, driven by demographic tailwinds, investments in underpenetrated markets, diversification into new marketing channels, and potential expansion into new listing types (e.g. hotels),” Colantuoni wrote. Aside from lodging growth, Colantuoni believes Airbnb has a strong opportunity to meaningfully expand its offerings of travel experiences, such as tours and day trips, by 2030. The company can also drive revenue from sponsored listings, host and guest services, and expanding insurance, he added.
