Sadiq Khan continues to hold a commanding lead over his main rival Susan Hall for the London mayoralty, despite both main candidates at risk of being squeezed by the Green and Reform UK candidates, according to new polling from Savanta on behalf of the Centre for London.
The latest voting intention just three weeks before London’s Mayoral election on 2 May sees Khan with 50% of the vote, followed by the Conservative Party candidate Susan Hall with 26%.
The Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie is on 10%, the Green Party Candidate Zoë Garbett on 9% and Reform UK’s candidate Howard Cox on 2%.
There has been limited change since Savanta’s previous London voting intention poll last month (March), indicating a major challenge for Susan Hall to overcome her 24-point deficit.
There are however warning signs for both Khan and Hall ahead of polling day. Nearly four in ten (37%) of those who say they are voting for the current mayor say they are likely to consider voting for the Green candidate, including almost half (47%) of Khan’s younger voters.
While for Hall, a third (34%) of her voters say they are likely to consider voting for Reform UK’s Howard Cox instead, the highest of any other potential party.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “Our latest research shows limited movement since our last voting intention poll, and with Khan’s lead continuing to be a commanding 24 points, time is running out for Susan Hall.”
“There is a potential glimmer of hope for the Conservatives’ candidate. Our research suggests that significant proportions of both Khan and Hall voters would consider voting for other candidates, but that is likely to present a greater threat to Khan as the incumbent, than Hall.”
“His big polling leads might mean some of his core vote – including young Londoners – could believe it’s ‘safe’ to go for the Greens, despite a new voting system making this a riskier strategy for those that are unenthused by Khan but ultimately prefer him to the Conservative candidate.”
“Coupled with Susan Hall’s voters looking mainly at Reform UK – an unproven electoral machine with limited popularity in London – if any one of the main candidates could be squeezed, Khan looks most likely”
Antonia Jennings, Chief Executive at Centre for London, said, “With just three weeks left for Susan Hall to get voters onside, it’s looking likely that Sadiq Khan will be elected for his third term as Mayor of London in a few weeks.
However, nothing is certain. As these elections will be the first conducted under first past the post voting, and with almost four in ten of those likely to vote for Khan considering voting for the Green Party’s Zoë Garbett, there is still a great deal less clarity going into these elections than the Labour Party would hope.
Whoever our next Mayor is, I hope they’re ready to work with Westminster to get to the heart of the issues facing London. A quarter of Londoners are left in poverty after paying their housing costs. We must seek long-term solutions to both the cost of living and the housing crises plaguing our capital.”
Of those who say they are currently voting for Sadiq Khan, 37% say they would consider voting for the Green Party’s Zoë Garbett instead, 27% say they would consider the Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie, and just one in five (20%) say they would consider Khan’s closest rival, the Conservative candidate Susan Hall.
Younger Khan voters (18-34) are most likely to say they would consider voting for another candidate aside from Sadiq Khan, with nearly half (47%) of under 35’s likely to consider voting for Zoë Garbett.
Savanta’s previous London Mayoral voting intention poll (where fieldwork was conducted between 8 March – 12 March) also showed Khan with a 24-point lead. The current mayor was on 51% of the vote, with Hall on 27% of the vote share.
