Labour looks on course for a landslide, with Opinium’s final poll of the 2024 UK election campaign, conducted up to lunchtime on Wednesday 3rd July amongst over 3,000 UK adults, giving Keir Starmer’s party a 20-point lead.
The poll puts Labour on 41% of the vote share, with the Conservatives on 21%. Reform UK remains in third place, with 17%, marking a new high for the performance of a Farage-led party at a general election.
The Liberal Democrats have 11%, the Green Party has 7%, and the SNP has 2%.
Size of win depends on Conservative undecided in the final hours of the election
As the country heads to the polls in less than 24 hours, almost one in ten (8%) 2019 Conservatives still say they don’t know how they will vote, twice the number of 2019 Labour voters (4%). If these voters do return to the Conservatives at the very last moment, Labour’s lead may narrow by a couple of points – but the party would still have an unprecedentedly large lead in vote share.
How the final few days have gone: Reform has first bad week of the campaign in the final days
In the final few days of the campaign, Opinium’s poll suggests Reform has had its first bad stretch, with half of the public (49%) saying the party has had a bad week. This could prove significant as voters head to the polls tomorrow.
However, this would only potentially benefit the Conservatives to a limited extent, as over half (56%) of the public thinks that they are having a bad final few days of the campaign, slightly fewer than their score when Sunak left the D-Day commemorations early (65%).
Labour, however, has enjoyed another good week, with 43% believing this.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium said: “Time has run out for a change in Conservative fortunes, as Labour goes into the final day of the campaign with a historic 20-point lead.
“Rishi Sunak hopes the still significant number of Conservative undecideds, comprising 8% of their 2019 electoral coalition, will narrow the gap slightly. Even with a last-minute swing, it seems vanishingly unlikely that anyone other than Keir Starmer will be prime minister on Friday.”
