Opinium’s latest poll reveals Labour’s lead has increased to 18 points over the Conservatives, from a 16-point lead a fortnight ago. Labour has seen a 2 point increase in Opinium’s last three polls.
Labour’s vote share sits at 43%, whilst the Conservatives drop to on 25% (-2). The Liberal Democrats rose to 11% (+1), SNP remain on 2% (n/c), the Greens on 6% (+1) and Reform UK remain on 10% (n/c).
Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are down by four points (31% approve, 38% disapprove) since two weeks ago. This represents a stabilisation from the last poll, where his approval rating rose by 6 points.
Sunak sees a small dip of two points and Ed Davey sees no change.
When asked who the best prime minister would be Keir Starmer’s lead on Rishi Sunak continues to rise, with an 11-point lead, up from 8 points two weeks ago. Almost a third (30%) say they would prefer Starmer and just over a fifth (22%) say they would prefer Sunak.
Labour parties leads on all areas apart from defence or responding to terrorism
The Labour party still comes out top in most areas – with two in five (41%) believing a government led by Keir Starmer would handle healthcare/NHS the best, followed by the economy and environmental issues, both at 32%, and education at 36%.
The only areas where the government retains a lead is on defence (1-point lead) and on handling terrorism (1-point lead).
Lord Cameron seen as more trustworthy than David Lammy on foreign affairs
Looking at how trustworthy voters consider cabinet ministers vs shadow cabinet ministers to be, Labour’s shadow cabinet come out as being more trustworthy on the whole.
In the realm of economic management, Labour Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves leads with a preference rate of 32%, suggesting a strong public perception of Labour’s capability in handling economic issues. Conservative Chancellor Jeremy Hunt trails behind with a 25% preference rate.
When it comes to healthcare, Labour Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting is the preferred choice of 34% of the respondents, reflecting a strong trust in Labour’s approach to healthcare issues. Conservative Health Secretary Victoria Atkins is chosen by only 14%.
The issue of crime sees Labour Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper leading with a 31% preference rate, which could reflect a perceived strength of Labour in addressing crime. Conservative Home Secretary James Cleverly is preferred by 19% of the respondents.
However, when it comes to foreign policy, Conservative Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron garners 28% preference, indicating a moderate level of public support for the Conservative party’s foreign policies. Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy is close behind with a 25% preference rate, showing competitive trust in Labour’s capability to handle foreign affairs.
James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Opinium said: “The received wisdom is that as we get nearer to the next general election, the polls might narrow. Unfortunately for the government, six weeks into 2024 and the polls appear to have widened slightly as the Conservatives drop to only a quarter of the vote.
“The Conservatives are lacking any decisive issue or winning personality on the front bench, with the possible exception of Lord Cameron, with which to claw back support. Conservative MPs will be hoping against hope that the Budget in under a month gives them some form of boost.”
