Labour’s largest lead since January sees Starmer surge in Best PM metric

The Labour Party’s voting intention lead stands at 20 points, the largest lead since January 2023, according to the latest Savanta polling.

Labour, on 46 points, are up just one point from the previous poll a fortnight ago, while the Conservatives, on 26 points, have dropped by three.

The poll also gives Keir Starmer his fifth consecutive and widest-ever lead in the Best PM metric over Rishi Sunak, with 42% of the public saying the Labour leader would make the best Prime Minister, while fewer than one in three (30%) say the same about the incumbent PM.

The voting intention findings indicate that just 57% of those that voted Conservative in 2019 would do so again if an election were tomorrow, with around one in eight (13%) switching directly to Labour. However, a further one in eight (12%) say they are undecided, while 8% say they’d vote for Reform UK, and it is surely these voters that Rishi Sunak is targeting with his latest shift away from green policies.

However, Sunak is less popular than ever, with his net favourability rating falling to -23 in this latest poll, a 12-point drop since June. His net favourability among Conservative 2019 voters stands at +17, a 19-point drop since April.

On the contrary, Keir Starmer’s net favourability has increased by three points in this poll to +2, while one in six (16%) of Conservative 2019 voters say he’d make a better Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “Sunak’s shift away from green policies feels a desperate attempt to claw back votes, and this latest polling shows that he is in dire need of a boost.

“These numbers are the worst since he’s taken office, and while they’re still no close to being ‘Liz Truss bad’, they’re reflective of a Prime Minister that’s failed to make progress since he entered No.10.”

“Whether his change in approach to achieving net zero will have the desired impact of winning voters back remains to be seen, and the issue of net zero is a contentious one when it comes to public opinion.

“I doubt this policy alone will be enough to convince voters that he, and his party, are once again on the side of the people, but if it’s a sign of things to come, there are dividing lines that Sunak can draw between himself and Starmer that could, maybe, start to stem the flow of Conservative fatigue that feels evident from almost every poll conducted.”