Ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Labour government, Opinium’s latest poll reveals that the majority of UK voters (54%) think Starmer’s party has been doing a bad job since it was elected.
Less than a fifth (18%) think that the party has done a good job. 2024 Labour voters are split on how the Labour Government has done, with 34% saying they have done a bad job compared to 37% saying they have done a good job.
Most people (54%) think Labour has done a worse job than expected, with just 18% thinking they’ve exceeded expectations.
Comparing the current Labour government to the previous Conservative government, just over a quarter (26%) think Labour is doing a better job, with only slightly more (29%) feeling the last Conservative government performed better.
Two fifths (42%) also feel that, since coming into government, the current government has prioritised the wrong issues with only 11% thinking the right issues have been prioritised. The main things that the public believe have been handled poorly in the last 12 months are the winter fuel allowance changes (40%) and disability benefit changes (29%).
The public think that Labour have made very little to no progress on the 5 mission they put forward to rebuild Britain since they have been elected: Kickstarting the economy (64% think little to now progress has been made on this), making Britain a cleaner energy superpower (63%), taking back our streets (71%),reforming the childcare and education systems (62%), building an NHS fit for the future (64%).
Approval ratings remain decidedly negative
Keir Starmer’s approval rating remains stable – albeit low – dropping 1 point from a fortnight ago down to -35%. After gaining an 8-point increase in Opinium’s last poll, Kemi Badenoch’s approval drops back down by 5 points to -24%. Ed Davey remains the only leader of the main parties that does not have a negative rating, however this week it also drops from 1% to 0%. Nigel Farage is the only party leader to experience an increase this week, rising 2 points to -9% this week.
Israel and Iran tensions
More than three quarters (78%) are concerned about the impact of the recent escalation in conflict between Iran and Israel on global security, with a third saying they are “very concerned” (32%). Only 12% are not concerned about this.
Overall, the UK public are critical of the response of many the leaders during the outbreak of the Iran and Israel conflict. Almost half of the public disapprove of Ayatollah Khameni’s (47% disapprove, 8% approve) and Benjamin Netanyahu’s response (47% disapprove, 14% approve). While similar numbers disapprove of Donald Trump’s response (46%), a quarter approve (25%). The public are more mixed on Keir Starmer’s response with a third (34%) disapproving, a quarter (23%) approving and 27% neither approving nor disapproving.
Almost two thirds (62%) feel pessimistic that the current ceasefire between Iran and Israel will hold, compared to a fifth (20%) who are optimistic it will hold.
It’s therefore unsurprising that almost half (46%) currently support NATO’s commitment to raising defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, compared to just around one in six (16%) who oppose it.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said, “As Labour marks its first year in office, the public’s mood is pessimistic.
“A majority believe the government has underperformed, with a sense of little to no visible progress on their key promises to rebuild Britain. While no major achievements stand out, two missteps dominate public perception.
“The controversial changes to the Winter Fuel allowance are seen as the most poorly handled policy so far, and the government’s approach to disability benefits has also drawn criticism.
“With three U-turns in a month- on winter fuel payments, grooming gang inquiries, and the latest on disability benefits- Labour appears to be feeling the weight of increased public and political pressure.”
