Media trailblazer Tom Rogers changes ‘raging bull’ stance on Netflix, sees worrisome signs

Former NBC Cable President Tom Rogers is dialing back his bullishness on Netflix.

The media trailblazer, who was a self-proclaimed “raging bull” on Netflix, told CNBC’s “Fast Money” this week he’s starting to worry — and listed competition with free content on YouTube as a headwind.

“[Netflix] still [has] more hit shows than all the other streaming services combined, but when you look at the growth of their sub[scriber] base and look at the amount of total engagement time from all viewers they get, the amount of viewing per viewer has gone down some,” said Rogers, who’s now executive chairman of AI company Claigrid.

Netflix saw the largest monthly viewership increase versus its peers in June, according to Nielsen. However, YouTube had 13% of total monthly TV viewership while Netflix had 8%. 

Rogers’ latest take comes after Netflix delivered a positive quarterly report on July 17.

“There was nothing wrong with its earnings at all,” said Rogers, who is also a CNBC contributor. “But engagement is what drives everything here. The amount of viewing it gets, it drives price increases, which drive programming budget, which drives more great programming.”

Netflix beat second quarter top and bottom line estimates and raised its full-year guidance. But since its earnings report, the streamer’s stock is down about 6% and is now off almost 11% since hitting a record high on June 30.

Rogers also predicts artificial intelligence will be a “double-edged sword” for Netflix in the near-term. On the one hand, he said it will aid the streamer’s targeted advertising and help cut programming costs. But it also allows independent content creators a leg up — which benefits YouTube.

“The line between professional and amateur content is going to get more and more blurry as AI tools in the hands of amateurs allow them to produce things that look incredibly professional,” he said. “I think AI in the hands of the creative community of YouTube could create a level of professional programming for YouTube which drives its viewership even further.”

YouTube’s parent company, Alphabet, is up 2% so far this year. 

Yet, Rogers still considers Netflix maintaining his status as the most valuable media company in the world. However, he said a lag is “something to watch for sure.”

Netflix spokesperson Emily Goldstein deferred comment to the company’s second-quarter earnings call.