The Mexican peso remains under pressure amid both internal and global economic environments that pose serious challenges.
Recent sales data in Mexico underline the fragility of the economy. Monthly growth was only 0.1%, while the annual decline of 0.8% in August marks the fourth consecutive drop, reinforcing the negative sentiment about the country’s economic performance.
These weaker-than-expected results confirm an economic slowdown scenario that could extend over the coming months.
Internationally, the outlook is not favorable for the peso either. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its global growth projections for 2025, directly impacting Mexico’s export-dependent economy.
Although the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner, has improved its growth forecasts, political uncertainty surrounding a potential re-election of Donald Trump continues to affect investor sentiment. A shift in trade policies under a Trump administration could present new challenges for Mexican exports, further increasing pressure on the peso’s exchange rate against the dollar. Domestically, the current escalation of the constitutional controversy over the new judicial reform is becoming a significant factor in investor sentiment.
In this context, markets have reacted cautiously with Mexico’s 30-year sovereign bonds advancing, while in the latest Banxico auctions, short-term Cetes rates showed mixed adjustments. It is expected that the Bank of Mexico will adopt a cautious approach in its monetary policy, with the possibility of a benchmark rate cut by year-end.
In summary, while global markets remain attentive to growth projections and political uncertainties in the U.S., the Mexican peso will continue to face significant pressures. The outcome of the U.S. elections and potential changes in trade policies will be key determinants for the currency’s trajectory in the short and medium term.
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