Shares of biopharmaceutical company Moderna have been rallying ahead of a closely watched health-care conference next week, with some betting the beaten up stock may have a better year ahead. As 2026 gets underway, Moderna shares have already climbed 21%. The stock surged 11% on Tuesday, adding to gains from the previous two sessions. Tuesday’s rally marked its best single day since Oct. 30, when they gained nearly 14%. Even with this latest surge, however, Moderna shares are down 26% over the past year, and are trading about 27% below a 52-week high hit a year ago. MRNA 6M mountain MRNA 6M chart A ‘productive’ 2025 In an annual letter to shareholders on Monday, Moderna’s management struck a positive tone, applauding a “productive” year that led to three approved commercial products and they touted cancer vaccines that it’s developing. “For 2025, we are aiming at a projected revenue range of $1.6 [billion] to $2.0 billion as our commercial teams strengthened the foundation of our seasonal vaccine franchise,” the company said in its letter. “Uptake of our three approved products, Spikevax, mRESVIA and mNEXSPIKE, reflected a growing recognition of the long-term burden of these viruses, particularly among at-risk populations, amidst a still-evolving respiratory vaccine market.” Moderna said it expects rising usage of mNEXSPIKE in the U.S. and its launch in other countries will help it grow revenue 10% in 2026. Moderna is slated to present at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco on Monday, where it will likely discuss its pipeline more in depth. Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai attributed the latest stock move to investors positioning ahead of this event. “There could be blind positioning into next week’s JPMorgan conference, where historically speaking you have seen M & As happen in general,” Tsai said. “So it could be positioning into a potential event — especially if you’re short, you have to cover — that could push the stock up, too.” About 19.5% of Moderna’s floating shares are sold short, according to FactSet. Tsai has a hold rating and a $30 price target on Moderna shares, which implies downside of nearly 16% from Tuesday’s close. The analyst said it’s unlikely that Moderna would see M & A activity, and expects the stock could retrace some of its recent rally if no news materializes next week. Cancer study data expected in 2026 Piper Sandler analyst Edward Tenthoff said investors may be finally warming up to the stock and the potential for intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer immunotherapy it is developing with Merck . “They’re using the mRNA technology as a cancer vaccine for melanoma, and we should get data probably middle or back half of the year from this phase 3 melanoma trial. That could really be sort of the start of broader utilization of this MRNA technology in oncology,” Tenthoff said in an interview. Tenthoff traced Moderna’s recent rally back to its Nov. 20 analyst day. Since showcasing its research and development pipeline, shares of Moderna have jumped 59%. Also, its Covid-related revenue has bottomed out, assuaging investor fears. Moderna’s second-generation Covid vaccine, approved in 2025, alongside its new flu vaccine regulatory filings could provide additional catalysts for the stock. “I think investors are buying it because they feel sort of protected to the downside with Covid revenues, and now they really want to own it into this phase 3 melanoma data that we’ll get this year,” Tenthoff said. Piper Sandler has an overweight rating and a $63 price target, which would offer upside of about 77% from Tuesday’s closing price of $35.66. However, Bank of America analyst Alec Stranahan expects Covid to remain an overhang on the stock this year. He reiterated his underperform rating on Tuesday, but raised its price objective to $24 from $21. The bank’s new forecast still implies a 33% decline from where shares of Moderna closed on Tuesday. Stranahan has applauded Moderna’s cost cutting efforts and expects there could be potential upside from the phase 3 intismeran readout. “Moderna has done a solid job of cost cutting from COVID highs, with the company demonstrating visibility to cashflow breakeven in 2028 offering additional reassurance,” Stranahan wrote. “We believe the company is on the right path, however we see ex-U.S. uptake and FDA sentiment on combination vaccines as still open questions. With intismeran representing an upside driver beyond current guidance, a pull-forward in breakeven timing on phase 3 success would be a positive for shares.” UBS downgraded Moderna shares to neutral from buy on Wednesday. The move came as analyst Michael Yee joined the firm as global head of biotechnology research. Yee said the cancer vaccine will be an “all-important event,” but shares will be rangebound in the first half of this year. The analyst said positive data from the trial could catapult the stock 50% higher, but negative data could cut it in half or more. “Given the ongoing $2B annual [cash] burn, we see balanced risk/reward for the stock in 2026 and favor other commercial-scale biotechs with more visibility on profitability, pipelines, or strategic M & A value,” Yee wrote.
