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Morgan Stanley upgrades this ‘prime beneficiary’ of defense exports, calls for more than 20% upside

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
April 16, 2025
in Investing
Morgan Stanley upgrades this ‘prime beneficiary’ of defense exports, calls for more than 20% upside
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Shares of Lockheed Martin could be slated for more gains from here, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm upgraded the global aerospace and defense company to overweight from equal weight and hiked its price target on the name to $575 from $525, which implies more than 22% upside from Tuesday’s close. “With international business representing ~27% of sales / ~30% of backlog, we see LMT as a prime beneficiary of higher potential Defense exports,” analyst Kristine Liwag wrote in a Wednesday note to clients. “Despite some expressed hesitation around F-35 commitments (e.g., Canada), we see few alternatives to the world’s most sophisticated fighter jet. International demand for the aircraft is likely to prove resilient.” Along with increased demand, Liwag said that the company’s recent missiles and fire control (MFC) program losses – which the analyst notes made up more than 75% of the fourth quarter charges in 2024 – now “appear in the rear view.” She also sees Lockheed Martin as having an “attractive” valuation, noting that it sits at about a 10% discount to the Defense Prime group. According to FactSet, the stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 16.8. LMT .SPX YTD mountain LMT vs. S & P 500, year-to-date While Lockheed Martin has lost more than 23% in the past six months, the stock has still fared better than the S & P 500 in 2025. Shares are down 3% year to date, while the benchmark index has dropped 8%. Month to date, shares have also risen more than 5%, also outpacing the broader market index. Shares rose 1.5% in premarket trading Wednesday following Liwag’s upgrade. Analysts are split on the stock. Of the 25 who cover it, 10 have a strong buy or buy rating, per LSEG. However, 14 rate the stock as a hold.



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