Crude oil prices were slightly lower today, extending yesterday’s sharp selloff and holding near recent lows.
Market fundamentals remained dominated by increasing oversupply concerns.
The IEA maintained that the market could see supply continue to grow faster that demand, creating a surplus this year and the next.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, OPEC’s latest monthly report projects a slight surplus in the market in 2026, abandoning its earlier deficit view. This shift, combined with record US production projections and stronger-than-expected growth from non-OPEC producers, reinforces expectations of a coming glut.
Additionally, industry data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by about 1.3 million barrels last week. Traders are now awaiting the official EIA report later today to confirm this trend, which could further entrench the oversupply narrative.
As a result, the market could remain under pressure. However, expectations of a pause in production increases in 2026 by OPEC could help limit downside risks to a certain extent.
