Oil slides in volatile trading as upcoming U.S.-Iran talks revive de-escalation hopes

Oil prices fell on Thursday after Washington and Tehran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, even as differences persist over the scope of the discussions.

U.S. crude oil was down 1.4% at $64.26 a barrel in Asia trading (8.50 p.m. ET Wednesday). Global benchmark Brent also fell 1.4% to $68.49 a barrel.

Iran is seeking to focus talks on its longstanding nuclear dispute with Western powers, while the United States wants the agenda to also cover Tehran’s ballistic missile program, its alleged backing of armed groups across the Middle East, and its domestic human rights record.

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “should be very worried,” sending oil about 3% higher.

Trump had warned last month that he could order strikes on Iran if Tehran fails to agree to a deal around its nuclear program. He had also threatened to intervene in support of protesters who have been raising voices against the Islamic Republic.

Analysts cautioned that markets may be over-interpreting diplomatic signals that could quickly reverse.

“It can be difficult to filter the messaging on Iran talks, which could lead to de-escalation but could also prove a mere tactical distraction ahead of military action,” said MST Marquee’s head of energy research, Saul Kavonic, who expects the oil market to “jump around” as sentiment around Iran talks develops and actual outcomes become clearer.

He added that underlying risks remain elevated despite the pullback in prices. “Ultimately, the large build up of military assets in the region by the U.S. and allies suggests a strike is more likely than not and the oil price is building in a premium to at least partly reflect that.”

Other analysts echoed the fragile nature of any diplomatic thaw and the asymmetric risks to oil supply should tensions flare again.

“Oil markets continue to react to the on again off again nature of potential talks between the United States and Iran, reflecting the deep distrust that each side has for the other,” said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.

While Lipow said he does not expect Washington to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure, the risk of escalation could still come from Tehran. “Iran might issue threats to tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to halt loadings, and in the worst case attack those tankers in order to close the waterway, sending oil prices significantly higher.”

The Hormuz strait between Oman and Iran is a vital channel where about one fifth of global oil production flows daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

It is a pivotal waterway linking crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

Analysts at Citi warned that upside pressures remain embedded in the market.

“Crude oil prices moderated because of discussions concerning the upcoming US-Iran negotiations which have eased immediate risk premium, but both we and market participants remain concerned about upside risks,” Citi said, pointing to U.S. actions toward Iran and uncertainty around Indian purchases of Russian oil as key factors.

Citi noted that market positioning continues to reflect supply concerns, with oil for near-term delivery trading at a premium to later months, and skewed call option pricing showing that traders are still paying up for protection against higher prices.