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One of the wildest chip stocks reports earnings after the bell. What analysts are thinking

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
March 20, 2025
in Investing
One of the wildest chip stocks reports earnings after the bell. What analysts are thinking
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Wall Street is gearing up for what could be a big day for Micron Technology , which has a history of making extreme swings after reporting results. The chipmaker’s shares are up roughly 22% in 2025, significantly outperforming the broader market, which is still in the red for the period. The company will issue its fiscal second-quarter results after the bell on Thursday. Micron is one of the most volatile semiconductor stocks out there. For example, shares surged 14.7% on Sept. 26 after Micron forecast first-quarter revenue that was higher than what the Street expected, but then the stock fell about 14% in December alone after Micron posted poor second-quarter guidance. On top of that, Micron has a beta of about 2, based on its trading activity in the last 52 weeks, according to FactSet. A stock’s beta measures its price volatility or systematic risk in relation to the overall market, which has a beta of 1. Analysts are still bullish on Micron and anticipate continued strength in the company’s chips business as pricing and demand improves in the latter half of this year. Of the 39 analysts covering the stock, 34 rate it a strong buy or a buy, per LSEG. Here’s what they’re thinking ahead of results. Citi reiterates buy rating and $150 price target Citi’s in it for the long run with Micron. Analyst Christopher Danely expects the company to post “decent results” but report below-consensus guidance. Micron should benefit from an improvement in its dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) pricing in the second quarter of this year, however, he said. The analyst reiterated his $150 price target, suggesting nearly 47% potential upside on the stock from Wednesday’s close. “We remain optimistic on Micron given their AI HBM opportunity and bullish on the DRAM recovery given supply/demand dynamics for C25, and our F26 EPS estimate is 39% above Consensus,” Danely said in a note earlier this week. Wells Fargo stays overweight, keeps $130 price target Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers expects a recovery in inventory levels in the second half of this year, and remains bullish on Micron’s improved competitive advantage in the DRAM and NAND markets. NAND is a type of technology used in data storage. “W/ MU already tempering F3Q25 GM% expectations, anticipated cont. HBM + data center momentum, and our belief that consumer end mkts are finding normalized inventory levels, we think MU presents a very compelling risk / reward set-up into mid / 2H25,” Rakers wrote in a recent note to clients. JPMorgan keeps overweight rating and $145 price target Micron’s quarterly results on Thursday should land in line with consensus expectations, according to JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur. Strong pricing trends with its DRAM solutions and sustained demand in its HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, business could benefit the company’s future performance, Sur said. Like Citi’s Danely, Hur is also enthusiastic about Micron’s artificial intelligence opportunity. “HBM demand trends continue to remain robust with strong visibility and AI capex spending is seeing no signs of slowing down post DeepSeek,” Hur wrote in a client note. “Overall, we believe the setup for 2H CY25 remains solid on favorable AI-driven demand in HBM combined with improving supply/demand dynamics as there appears to be limited cleanroom space to expand capacity, which is constraining leading-edge DRAM production.” UBS maintains buy rating and $125 price target Analyst Timothy Arcuri said expected volume and pricing declines mostly in Micron’s NAND business could be partially offset by the company’s robust HBM shipments. “Despite near-term uncertainty across both NAND and DRAM, we continue to see May-Q gross margin as the trough and moving higher through C2025,” Arcuri said in a recent note to clients. “With the stock having historically tracked gross margin with surprisingly little discounting, we maintain our buy rating.” Arcuri’s price target implies 22.5% potential upside for the stock. Stifel sticks to its buy rating and $130 price target Analyst Brian Chin is looking forward to improving pricing on Micron’s NAND technology starting in the second quarter. Although Chin is optimistic on the company’s second-quarter results, he lowered his third-quarter estimates to reflect the carryover of weaker memory contract pricing through the first half of the year. Micron’s revenue, margins and earnings should re-expand in its fourth quarter, he said. “We expect the company to largely meet ours/consensus estimates for F2Q(Feb), though we did lower our F3Q(May) estimates to reflect lingering softness in memory pricing and less favorable shift in mix (toward consumer, from enterprise/hyperscaler),” Chin said. “This is already known with management calling for a decline in F3Q GMs.”



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