Palantir rallied after issuing a strong revenue forecast for 2026 and posting strong Q4 results, with analysts across Wall Street pointing to the company’s strong artificial intelligence presence as a key driver behind the bullish outlook. The software analytics company, which creates tools for businesses and government agencies, posted fourth-quarter earnings of 25 cents per share on revenue of $1.41 billion. Analysts expected a profit of 23 cents per share on revenue of $1.33 billion. Analysts noted that this was the 10th straight quarter of accelerating total revenue growth for the company, driven by upside in both total commercial and total government growth. Palantir’s commercial business accelerated 137% year over year in the fourth quarter, while its government business grew 66% year over year, wrote Goldman Sachs. But analysts were even more blown away by Palantir’s strong revenue forecast. The company’s 2026 guidance implies topline growth of 61%, ahead of Wall Street’s 43% estimate. Sell-side shops applauded Palantir as a clear artificial intelligence leader, pointing out that its earnings report proves that companies are embracing AI. “With 2026 guidance targeting growth of +61%, PLTR is on course to reach $10B in revenue at the fastest growth rate and highest margins perhaps in [software] history, underscoring its status as a clear AI winner,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh. Analysts see further upside in Palantir’s commercial and government divisions, with Bank of America’s Mariana Perez Mora highlighting the company’s December $448 million deal with the U.S. Navy as “only the beginning.” In July, Palantir signed a software contract worth up to $10 billion with the U.S. Army. Mora added that while competition will certainly increase for Palantir, the company’s gap versus contenders only continues to widen. Those covering the stock also glazed over one of the few sore spots on the report, a deceleration in Palantir’s number of new customers. “We find it challenging to even find a flaw in this print (new customer growth slowed but that’s not a key KPI for Palantir),” wrote UBS analyst Karl Keirstead. Shares of Palantir jumped 11% in Tuesday’s premarket session. Still, some remained bearish or neutral purely on Palantir’s lofty valuation and multiples which they said may be difficult to sustain. Here’s what some of Wall Street’s biggest shops had to say. RBC Capital Markets: underperform rating, $50 price target The bank’s price target implies about 66% downside from Palantir’s Monday close of $147.76. “1Q revenue guidance calls for $1,532 – $1,536M (~74% YoY), above consensus at ~$1,326M, while adj. operating margin midpoint was set at ~57%, above consensus of 48.3%. 2026 revenue guidance was set at $7,182-$7,198M (above consensus at ~$6,295M) and U.S. Commercial revenue guidance exceeds $3.14B which represents at least 115% YoY growth.” Jefferies: underperform, $70 Jefferies’ forecast corresponds to downside of 53%. “4Q results showed broad-based acceleration with rev/U.S. commercial growth rising to 70%/137% y/y (vs 63%/121% last Q) and CY26 guidance pointing to continued momentum: rev to 61% growth (vs 56% in CY25), U.S. commercial to 115% growth (vs 109% in CY25) and [operating margin] to 57% (vs 50% in CY25). We view execution as strong, though at 39x CY27E rev, multiple downside outweighs fundamental upside, with more attractive stocks in our coverage.” UBS: neutral, $180 The bank’s target, down from $205, calls for 22% upside going forward. “Palantir reported its 10th straight quarter of revs growth acceleration, a turnaround that we’ve never seen before, from 13% in 2Q23 to just-reported 4Q25 growth of 70%, impressive growth while at a $5.6 billion revs scale while running at 57% operating margins. The key takes for us are twofold – a) with a normal beat, the 61% revs guide for 2026 implies that growth may accelerate further from the 70%+ level in 4Q25/1Q26 and b) large enterprises ARE leaning in to AI and spending to harness their data sets, a good readthrough to the broader data software segment. We remain very positive on the fundamentals and it is only valuation (94x CY26e FCF) that keeps us Neutral rated.” Goldman Sachs: neutral, $182 Goldman Sachs’ forecast, down from $188, is 27% above Palantir’s Monday closing price. “2026 revenue guidance is 14% above the Street and EBIT margin is ~700bps above. Palantir remains one of only a handful of software companies that is clearly benefiting from AI deployments today because of its unique IP in data aggregation/analysis, its custom-built ontologies, and its FDE model that then converts code into product. Our positive near-term view is balanced by longer term ecosystem risks (i.e., the TAM will go up but the win rate may go down as competition matures) and valuation.” Deutsche Bank: hold, $200 Deutsche Bank’s forecast was approximately 35% higher than Palantir’s current valuation. “We come away from Palantir’s exceptional 4Q results questioning all that we know about covering Software and what it means for the entire space. As most other companies struggle to demonstrate enterprise AI value capture and explicit incrementality, Palantir is handily gaining share, particularly in AI, as it delivers accelerating growth at scale. While we can look to real innovations like Ontology, AIP, AI FDE, and many others to understand why, it is clear Palantir is ahead of app software incumbents in creating real AI value for customers … Put simply, the combination of growth, scale, and profitability definitely puts PLTR in a class by itself, or an ‘n of 1’ company as CEO Alex Karp says.” Baird: outperform, $200 “Revenue and FCF too impressive; valuation finally reasonable. Yesterday PLTR reported strong Q4 results, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of accelerating total revenue growth (+70% vs. +63% in Q3), driven by U.S. commercial upside. Guidance was also strong, with Q1 guidance implying further acceleration. We had been on sidelines, like many, due to valuation. But the free cash flow inflection, and arguably attractive (not a typo) FCF multiple on 2027 upside scenarios, pushes us into the ‘buy’ camp. And by the way, PLTR remains one of the clearest AI winners.” Morgan Stanley: equal-weight, $205 Morgan Stanley’s target equates to 39% upside. “Revenue accelerated for the 10th qtr in a row to +70% on op margins of 57%. With 2026 guidance targeting growth of +61%, PLTR is on course to reach $10B in revenue at the fastest growth rate and highest margins perhaps in [software] history, underscoring its status as a clear AI winner.” Bank of America: buy, $255 The bank’s forecast implies about 73% upside from here. “Actions have consequences; for Palantir their intentional actions on how to go-to-market, develop products, and be an enabler of AI-decision making continues to be met with exponential growth. We view PLTR’s 2025 rule of 40 score of 106% and 118% outlook for 2026 as a warning to peers, being an ‘AI company’ needs to come with real results. While the market’s relationship with AI companies continues to be volatile, we see these results cementing PLTR’s place as one which will survive and thrive in the chaos.” Citi: buy, $260 Citi’s forecast, up from $235, corresponds to upside of around 76%. “Q4 was another extraordinary print with strong top/bottom line beats, accelerating growth in USG and U.S. Commercial and various booking metrics pointing to triple digit growth (TCV and RDV growing > 100% YoY and cRPO bookings up 103% YoY). With initial FY26 guidance well surpassing consensus expectations > 60% YoY total revenue growth (vs. consensus at ~40%) and $4.1Bn of adj FCF (consensus at $3.1Bn), these revisions mark some of the strongest at scale we’ve seen in enterprise software. Palantir’s momentum increasingly stands out in a software market where accelerating growth stories are rare, which we’d attribute to Palantir’s best-in-class AI-FDE and data ontology capabilities.”
