The oldest baby boomers are rapidly approaching their 80th birthday, and those changing age demographics could lift a senior housing play, according to Jefferies. People aged 65 and older accounted for nearly 17% of the U.S. population in 2020 – 55.8 million individuals, according to the U.S. Census Bureau . The first wave of baby boomers, born in 1946, will turn 80 in 2026. That means there will likely be greater need for senior housing and care facilities in coming years. “The 80+ population is set to increase meaningfully over the next few years, which will drive a material increase in demand for senior housing,” wrote Jefferies analyst Joe Dickstein in a report on Monday. He highlighted American Healthcare REIT as a way to play the trend, initiating research coverage with a buy rating. Dickstein also gave the real estate investment trust a price target of $37, suggesting 17% upside from Monday’s close, excluding its dividend. The stock offers attractive income, with a dividend yield of 3.1%. Shares are up about 13% in 2025. AHR YTD mountain American Healthcare REIT in 2025 Clean way to invest “AHR’s focus on high acuity senior housing positions it as one of the cleanest ways to invest in the aging demographics theme,” the analyst wrote. In particular, high acuity senior housing – a level of specialized care for individuals with complex health conditions – accounts for about 71% of American Healthcare’s net operating income, Dickstein said. The company’s Integrated Senior Health Campuses, or ISHCs, are also a key differentiator and growth driver, he added. These properties bring together skilled nursing and assisted living on one campus. “Most seniors are introduced to the ISHC through the skilled nursing wing, and are then given the option to transfer to the assisted living wing when they have recovered from their injury,” Dickstein said. “This has good market fit as seniors already consider the ISHC to be a familiar environment and have peace of mind knowing that skilled nursing facilities are located nearby,” he added. Capturing demand With these housing arrangements, American Healthcare is poised to capture significant demand from the 80-plus age demographic, which is expected to average 3.2% annual growth for 2025 to 2026 and 5.9% annual growth for 2027 to 2028, the analyst said. Dickstein forecasts a three-year compound earnings annual growth rate of 12.7% for American Healthcare, the second highest in its peer group. “At 19.7x [next 12 months’] earnings, we believe that this premium multiple can expand further,” he added. Wall Street is largely bullish on American Healthcare, with most analysts rating it a buy or strong buy, according to LSEG. Consensus price targets call for nearly 7% upside from current levels.
