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Rental growth lags behind inflation as supply and demand begin to rebalance – London Wallet

Mark Helprin by Mark Helprin
September 15, 2025
in Real Estate
Rental growth lags behind inflation as supply and demand begin to rebalance – London Wallet
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Rental market conditions are the weakest they have been since 2020, with the UK rental market showing significant signs of improvement for tenants, the latest Rental Market Report1 from Zoopla has revealed.

The pace of rental growth has stalled, with rents just 2.4% higher than a year ago, which is lower than the latest UK CPI (Consumer Price Index) annual inflation rate of 3.8% as of July 2025.

This is the slowest annual rate in four years and less than half the pace recorded just 12 months ago. The average monthly rent now stands at £1,300pcm, up £30 over the last year.

Table 1: Rental supply and demand coming back to balance

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Letting agents are now receiving 24% fewer enquiries from prospective tenants compared to a year ago. Tighter visa rules have led to migration levels almost halving in 2024 and more stable mortgage rates, and rising incomes are encouraging more renters to buy their own homes.

This shift was significantly boosted in the first quarter of 2025 when changes to how mortgage affordability is assessed gave first-time buyers a 20 per cent boost to their borrowing capacity. This change has led to a 30 per cent jump2 in first-time buyer mortgages over the last year, which is both weakening demand for rentals and adding more homes to the market as these buyers move out of their rented properties.

After years of fierce competition for rental properties, the market is now seeing more choices for renters. The number of homes available to rent has increased by a fifth (19%) over the last 12 months, with the average letting agent having 19 homes for rent, up from a low of 14 in 2022.

This welcome change is driven by several factors. A 36% jump in UK rents since 2020 has made it more attractive for landlords to invest in new buy-to-let properties, with new loans for these purchases up 60 per cent3. At the same time, improving conditions in the mortgage market are helping more first-time buyers move into homeownership, freeing up their old rental homes. With more choice and less competition, homes are now staying on the market for an average of 16 days, giving tenants more time to find the right property.

The number of homes for rent is higher across all regions than a year ago, especially in the South West and East Midlands where supply has risen by 36% and 31% respectively. It’s likely that homeowners who are struggling to sell in these regions are choosing to rent out their properties instead, further boosting the number of available homes. This is giving renters more options and reducing the pressure to settle for the first home they see.

Table 2: Regional breakdown of rental supply

image.png

While more homes are becoming available in most regions, this picture looks a little different in London. The number of rental homes in the capital has only increased slightly compared to other parts of the country. This is due to several reasons: landlords using mortgages to buy property for rent need to put down a larger deposit (£187,000 in London vs £29,000 in the North East and London also has the largest share of landlords still looking to sell homes (31% of all homes for sale). For renters, this means that while the situation is improving, the London market remains tighter than in other parts of the UK.

Average rents have increased by almost £80 per week over the last five years, adding up to an extra £4,100 a year. This significant increase is making it a real struggle for many people to keep up with their rent payments, adding to the general cost-of-living pressures they already face. Many private renters are on below-average household incomes and almost a third rely on housing benefit to support rental costs, where the allowance has not kept pace with rental increases.

However, five years of rapid increases has meant that rental growth has slowed down across most of the UK as a result of affordability constraints. At a regional level, annual rental growth ranges from less than two per cent in London, Scotland and Yorkshire and Humberside to 4.6 per cent in the North East.  At a localised level, rents are falling across cities including Bristol (-0.5 per cent) and Leeds (-0.6 per cent). Rental growth has also slowed across all cities compared to the typical growth rates over the last five years.

Table 2: Increase in average weekly rental costs between 2020 and 2025

image.png

Rental market conditions are starting to normalise after a frantic few years characterised by many renters chasing too few homes as landlords held back from investing in more stock, which in turn pushed rents higher. Supply and demand are coming back into balance, but the unaffordability of home ownership is trapping people in private renting in many areas, which is keeping rental demand above pre-pandemic levels.

It is positive that the number of homes for rent is steadily recovering. However, sustained high levels of new investment activity isn’t expected and rental growth is on track to be 3% over 2025.

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, said: “Rental market conditions are starting to normalise which will be very welcome news to renters. Lower migration and better mortgage availability for first time buyers are easing the scale of the competition for rented homes.

“There is also more choice for renters with more homes for rent as landlords start to buy homes once again and some owners who can’t find a buyer listing their homes for rent.

“The affordability of renting remains a key constraint on the pace of future rental inflation and we expect rents to be 3% higher by the end of the year at an average of £1,320 a month.”





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