Tesla has an abundance of positive catalysts ahead that should fuel its revenue momentum heading into next year, according to Roth MKM. Analyst Craig Irwin upgraded Tesla shares to buy and increased his price target on the stock to $380 from $85. That new target, which implies a 10.5x revenue multiple on his 2025 estimates, suggests more than 10% potential upside ahead. Tesla shares are up roughly 42% year to date, marking a massive turnaround since President-elect Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election and strengthened his ties with Tesla CEO Elon Musk . “The stock is responding to the Trump bump,” Irwin said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday. “I don’t see very many negative catalysts if estimates are going to positive revisions. … Things are going to look a lot like they did 11, 12, 13 years ago, where they can literally invent their own milestones and knock them down.” Irwin expects Telsa to be an indirect beneficiary of the Trump transition team’s plans to end President Joe Biden ‘s $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, which could push rivals to retreat from the electric vehicle market and result in market share gains for Tesla. Further, greater enthusiasm for the Tesla brand among conservative voters could result in a “mostly fresh buying pool.” “Musk’s authentic support for Trump likely doubled Tesla’s pool of enthusiasts and lifted credibility for a demand inflection. … Catalysts should drive valuation. It’s real, the world has changed, so we are upgrading,” Irwin wrote in a Monday note. “We expect Tesla to see rebounding growth from an expanded pool of enthusiasts and the sunset of other more subsidy-dependent brands.” He believes Tesla’s domestic EV market share could rise back above 50% in the near term. The company’s market share had fallen to 48.2% in the third quarter, he said. Other catalysts Irwin thinks will boost Tesla’s growth include a more relaxed regulatory environment to accommodate its future robotaxi launch, its leadership in artificial intelligence through its self-driving software and its commercial potential in robotics, particularly humanoid robots. “Tesla is a large-cap company where the stock is behaving like an emerging growth company. Catalysts will play a primary role in valuation, in our view, as investors discount the longer-term served opportunity and projected earnings power,” Irwin said, adding that Roth MKM would be Tesla buyers on any weakness in the company’s share price. To be sure, analyst sentiment on Tesla remains divided — and overall sentiment has actually soured over the past year. According to FactSet, 44% of analysts have a consensus buy rating on Tesla, while 32% rate the stock a hold and 25% rate it a sell. This time last year, only 14% of analysts held a consensus sell rating on shares.
