The SNP (34%) has drawn level with Labour (34%), according to the latest Scottish voting intention from Savanta for the Scotsman.
The poll, conducted in the past week (21-26 June) suggests that the Conservatives (14%) continue to drop in Westminster voting intention, while the Liberal Democrats (7%) have not changed.
According to analysis from Professor Sir John Curtice, if these results were replicated at a general election, Labour would still be on course for 28 Scottish MPs from their current two, while the SNP would drop to 18 seats. The Liberal Democrats would increase to five MPs, while the Conservatives would fall to six MPs.
The Savanta poll, conducted this week (21-26 June), also suggests that the SNP (37%) is narrowly ahead of Labour (35%) the Holyrood Constituency voting intention, with the Conservatives dropping to 14%.
In the Holyrood list vote, the SNP has recorded 31% of the vote, with Labour on 29%. The Scottish Greens have dropped to 9% and the Conservatives have fared better on 17%.
If these results were reflected at election time, according to Professor Curtice’s analysis, the SNP would remain the largest party in Holyrood, but with a reduced 46 MSPs. The Labour Party would be a close second with 38 MSPs, and the Conservatives reduced to 23 MSPs.
Emma Levin, Associate Director at Savanta said, “Our latest Scottish voting intention suggests that the gap between Labour and the SNP is closing in Scotland, although this would still mean Labour picking up 28 Scottish MPs and the SNP dropping to 18.
“Labour’s vote in Scotland simply looks more efficient, as much of it is concentrated around the central belt, where there are many potential seats for them to pick up.
“The bigger picture is that Labour’s seat count in Scotland looks like it’s going to matter much less than it might have done six months ago. For the SNP, this election is about saving face after a challenging couple of years – if they achieve these results, they’ll likely think they’ve done a pretty decent job of holding on.”
