Customers shop for produce at an H-E-B grocery store on Feb. 12, 2025 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Millions of Social Security beneficiaries may see a 2.7% to 2.8% increase to their monthly checks in 2026, according to new estimates based on the latest government inflation data.
A 2.8% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may go into effect next year, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. That increase would push the average retirement benefit up by about $54.70 per month, she said.
Separately, the Senior Citizens League estimates the 2026 COLA may be 2.7%, pushing the average monthly retirement benefit up $54 per month, according to the nonpartisan senior group.
The average monthly retirement benefit is $1,955 for retired workers and their families, including spouses and children, according to August Social Security Administration data.
Those estimated increases would be up from the 2.5% boost to benefits that went into effect in 2025. The COLA has averaged 2.6% over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.
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The COLA projections are based on new consumer price index data for the month of August that was released on Thursday.
The official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will include one more month of inflation data.
The COLA for the next year is typically announced by the Social Security Administration in October. It is calculated based on third-quarter data using a subset of the consumer price index, known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
