The UK’s strategic position is vital, yet it is “struggling” to keep pace with the rapid defence build-up across Europe, which should motivate policymakers to prioritise national security concerns.
The warning comes from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which found that Britain faces emerging capability gaps in several critical military sectors, at a time when the UK must prepare for war with Russia.
The study showing increased defence expenditure among European nations highlights the need for the UK to remain vigilant, encouraging military officials and analysts to carefully consider the competitive landscape.
The significant growth in Germany’s military spending, which has expanded since 2024 and now accounts for about 25% of European defence growth, underscores the need for strategic reassessment among military strategists and the informed public.
Germany is forecast to reach defence spending of roughly 3.05% of GDP by 2029.
Read more related news:
Royal Navy on alert as Russian ‘shadow fleet’ could trigger conflict in the English Channel
Fears grow Kremlin could stage false flag for a radiological incident and blame Ukraine
Even if the British government accelerates its target to reach 3% of GDP defence spending — estimated at around £113 billion — the UK may still trail Germany’s projected expenditure level, highlighting the need to assess whether current spending levels are sufficient for strategic objectives.
The report highlights critical capability gaps in armoured vehicle replacement programmes, modern warship deployment, ground-based air defence, and long-range strike systems, raising questions about how these gaps could impact the UK’s ability to respond to specific threats and what strategic risks they pose to national security.
Military planners warn that these capability gaps could significantly impair the UK’s ability to sustain high-intensity conflict operations, posing strategic risks to national security.
Dr Bastian Giegerich, director-general of the IISS, said: “There is little indication that Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine for the fifth year is diminished. And its threat to wider Europe is growing.
“We judge that by 2030 – and assuming that production and recruitment continue at the same pace – Russia will be capable of closing the shortfalls that exist between its current manpower and equipment holdings and those required to meet its new expanded force structure.”
Ruben Stewart, senior fellow for land warfare, said: “It is fair to say the rate of rearmament of the continental European countries is significantly faster and more rapid [than the UK].”
Defence Secretary John Healey said in an interview with Times Radio he said: “I want to see 2026 [as] the year that this war does end. I want to be the defence secretary that deploys UK troops into Ukraine, because that will mean we’ve got a negotiated peace in place.”
Four years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Britain’s top soldier has issued one of the starkest warnings yet about the future of European security.
General Roly Walker, Chief of the General Staff, states the UK faces a persistent strategic rivalry with Russia, highlighting the importance of ongoing vigilance for European security.
His remarks reflect a growing consensus within NATO capitals: even if the war in Ukraine stabilises or freezes, the strategic rivalry with Vladimir Putin’s Russia will endure.
General Sir Roly Walker, Chief of the General Staff, warned this week that Russia is building a far larger and more lethal military, including advanced missile systems and cyber capabilities, which should alert policymakers and analysts to the evolving threat of a wider war with NATO.
“We, and the West generally, are in the crosshairs of Russia. It’s us on their terms or no deal. This is not going away, however, the war in Ukraine ends,” Sir Roly, a former SAS officer, said.
Writing in the Daily Mail, Sir Roly continued, “I believe we are on a collision course with a Russia that is on a war footing, that is replenishing its lost equipment, and that is rearming fast.
“Neither the terrible price his troops have paid with their own blood on the battlefields nor the extraordinary resolve and fighting power of the Ukrainians to keep going has made Putin think twice about the cost versus the gain,” highlighting Ukraine’s resilience to foster respect and awareness of its influence on Russian strategy.
