TD Cowen is taking a step back on Moderna . The firm downgraded shares in the vaccine provider to market perform from outperform and lowered its price target to $125 from $145. TD Cowen’s forecast implies roughly 14% upside from Thursday’s $109.95 close. Analyst Tyler Van Buren said uncertainty over the severity of the winter season’s demand for Covid-19 and flu vaccines underpinned the downgrade, as well as lower guidance from company management which now forecasts 50 million to 100 million doses for coronavirus shots. “We don’t yet know where the COVID-19 vaccines business will settle out, and this fall/ winter season will be crucial for determining that,” Van Buren said. The analyst added that additional uncertainty over how many vaccine reorders will come to fruition also casts doubt on the firm’s $7 billion estimate for annual revenue. “The $2B appears likely based on initial orders, but it still depends on shots going in arms this fall,” he said. “Furthermore, our annual estimate and consensus around $7B (which implies the midpoint of the $2-4B range), assumes that reorders will occur and there is some risk to that.” Moderna has slipped nearly 39% from the start of the year. MRNA YTD mountain Moderna stock has dipped nearly 40% from the start of the year. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
