Tesla deliveries expected to go down to levels not seen in more than 2 years

Tesla deliveries are expected to decrease this quarter to levels not seen in more than two years. We have to go back to 2022 to see the delivery volume the automaker is expected to deliver.

Time to worry for Tesla shareholders?

Prediction markets are entering the game of setting expectations for Tesla’s quarterly deliveries.

These markets use financial incentives, similar to betting, to predict specific outcomes. They became extremely popular during the latest US elections and have since expanded to predict a lot more outcomes ranging from sports to business to virtually anything.

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Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, has been running markets to predict Tesla’s quarterly deliveries that already gathered half a million in volumes.

It currently predicts that Tesla will deliver 359,000 vehicles in Q1 2025:

This would be down 7% year-over-year and a massive 27% down quarter-over-quarter.

In fact, you have to go back more than two years, Q3 2022, to get a quarter when Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than what is expected this quarter:

As we previously reported, Tesla’s sales are crashing in Europe this quarter – down by as much as 50%.

In China, Tesla’s most important market, sales are down slightly year-over-year.

The US is the most opaque market, and it will be the difference maker this quarter.

Electrek’s Take

This quarter would finally be the time to prove to Tesla shareholders that Elon is bad for Tesla. Unfortunately, they will blame the poor performance on the Model Y changeover, which will definitely impact Tesla negatively, but nowhere near that level.

I think it’s clear that the Elon effect is also working its magic here.

We know it since it’s not the first time Tesla has done a changeover. Now, it’s true that it’s the first time for a Model Y, which is Tesla’s best-selling vehicle, but the impact is more significant than when Tesla had factory shutdowns and supply chain issues last year.

The earnings are going to be even worse, but they will blame that on the new Model Y too.