Tesla is slated to release second-quarter results after the stock market’s closing bell Wednesday, and most analysts are adopting a cautious stance toward Elon Musk’s flagship business. Earlier this month, the electrical vehicle maker reported a 14% decline in second quarter vehicle deliveries . Now, analysts surveyed by LSEG expect that Tesla will see earnings slump 21% from a year ago, to 41 cents per share, on $22.62 billion in revenue, down more than 11% from the year-earlier period. Those declines would compound the dominant U.S. EV company’s first-quarter results, which missed Wall Street’s estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Automotive revenue plummeted 20% in the first quarter from a year prior, while total revenue slipped 9%. Shares of Tesla reached their lows of the year in April but have since recovered following CEO Elon Musk’s withdrawal from his position leading the Department of Government Efficiency. After soaring almost 40% in the past three months, Tesla is now down 18% on the year. TSLA YTD mountain TSLA YTD chart Heading into earnings, Wall Street appears split on Tesla. LSEG data shows that 23 of 53 analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy, while 20 assign it a hold rating. Here’s what analysts at some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are saying before Tesla’s latest earnings report. UBS: Sell rating and $215 price target UBS’s price target implies the risk of 35% downside ahead, based on Tuesday’s close. “We continue to believe Tesla is fundamentally overvalued. We see deteriorating fundamentals in the auto business, the removal of 100% margin credit revenue, likely negative revisions to estimates, and a CEO that arguably distracted from the business (or at least may not be as focused on the company as investors would like). However, Tesla is perhaps the ultimate story-narrative-momentum-meme stock. So near-term stock action will be heavily dependent on call commentary/tone.” Evercore ISI: In-line, $235 The firm’s forecast is roughly 29% below where shares of Tesla closed on Tuesday. “TSLA – CAUTIOUS. We believe the stock, today, is increasingly both NOISE & SIGNAL based on: 1) Unabated negative revisions, 2) Disappointing [autonomous vehicle] rollout, 3) Increasingly divisive political posting, & 4) Technicals on edge.” Barclays: Equal weight, $275 Analyst Dan Levy’s target would equate to another 17% downside in the stock. “Key takes: 1. Confusing set-up on 2Q with weak fundamentals, but could see positive reaction on better robotaxi narrative; 2. Expecting modest gross margin improvement: volume improved, but increased promotion; 3. Expect more significant ’25 volume decline, low-cost model potentially delayed to 4Q25.” Baird: Neutral, $320 Analyst Ben Kallo’s projection of where the stock should trade is almost 4% below Tesla’s Tuesday close. “Cautious stance ahead of busy EPS report. We see risk to estimates stemming from both 1) full-year volume outlook and 2) potential margin compression in the Energy segment. Both the unveiling of the more affordable vehicle (which is now delayed) and pull forward of deliveries due to the federal EV tax credit expiring may boost volumes, however, we are wary of potential cannibalization this vehicle may cause and remain cautious. We look for updates on the Tesla Semi, robotaxi rollout and Optimus in the Q2 report.” Bank of America: Neutral, $341 The bank’s forecast is 3% above Tesla’s Tuesday closing price. “Tesla 2Q earnings results are likely to be challenged due to tariffs and disappointing deliveries. Although Tesla produces all its vehicles in the U.S. and it manufactures vehicle with a high proportion of content made in North America, the exposure to tariff is not insignificant. Tesla relies on batteries made in China, particularly for its battery business. 2H25 is likely mixed because 3Q25 may benefit from demand pull forward in the U.S. while 4Q25 may be challenged due to the phase out of IRA incentives. On a more positive note, TSLA did start its Robotaxi service in Austin, TX. This gives us more confidence on the promise to deliver unsupervised [Full Self-Driving vehicles by the end of 2025.” Deutsche Bank: Buy, $345 Analyst Edison Yu’s forecast implies Tesla shares might rise 4% over the coming 12 months. “Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in 4Q).” Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight, $355 Cantor Fitzgerald’s target suggests Tesla might advance another 7% in the next year. “We update our Q2 estimates to account for 2Q25 vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployed. We lower our 2Q25 revenue estimate to ~$21B (vs. our prior estimate of $24.1B), to reflect Q2 vehicle deliveries, and a reduction in energy generation and storage revenue. No change to our 2025 and 2026 annual revenue and EPS estimates.” Piper Sandler: Overweight, $400 Piper Sandler’s forecast corresponds to upside of around 20%. “It recently emerged that Tesla has begun validating robo-taxis in Marble Falls, TX, which is well outside the company’s existing robo-taxi range (in Austin, TX). In our view, these favorable FSD-related developments are likely to overshadow any/all negative commentary arising from lower 2025/2026 estimates. As a result of this dynamic, we expect TSLA to trade closer to the high-end of its historical valuation range, when expressed in terms of out-year P/E.” Stifel: Buy, $450 Analyst Stephen Gengaro’s target implies about 36% upside from Tesla’s Tuesday close. “We believe TSLA is very well positioned to deliver robust multi-year growth in 2024-27+. In the near term, the revamped Model 3 and upcoming Model Y refresh should bolster sales, followed by the commencement of a lower-priced vehicle (Model 2) production that likely garners very strong demand. We also believe TSLA’s AI-based Full Self-Driving (FSD) initiative has the potential to generate significant value through both sales of FSD, possible licensing agreements, and as [a] critical part of longer-term Cybercab (Robotaxi) initiatives.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
