The first batch of January 2026 registration data is in from Europe, and Tesla’s freefall on the continent shows no sign of slowing down. Across five major markets that have reported so far, Tesla registrations are down a staggering 44% year-over-year, extending what is now more than two years of continuous decline.
Tesla’s January 2026 numbers
Here’s what the early data looks like across the five European markets that have released January 2026 figures:
| Country | Jan 2025 | Jan 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1,140 | 661 | -42.0% |
| Sweden | 405 | 512 | +26.4% |
| Denmark | 444 | 458 | +3.2% |
| Netherlands | 927 | 307 | -66.9% |
| Norway | 689 | 83 | -88.0% |
| Total | 3,605 | 2,021 | -43.9% |
A decline in Norway, Tesla’s second biggest market in Europe in 2025, was expected as the country ended most EV incentives on January 1, 2026, causing a massive pull-forward of sales into Q4 2025, but a 88% collapse is nonetheless surprising.
Also, Tesla doesn’t have the same excuse in France, which dropped by 42%, or the Netherlands, where sales cratered by nearly 67%.
Even the “gains” in Sweden and Denmark need context: these are coming off extremely depressed January 2025 numbers. Sweden is still down 29% compared to January 2024. The gains are rounding errors on a much larger collapse.
Two years and counting
This isn’t a blip. Tesla’s full 2025 results in Europe were a bloodbath, registrations dropped 27.8% to just 235,000 units, down from 326,000 in 2024. And 2024 was already down roughly 10% from 2023.
So we’re now looking at three consecutive years of decline, with each year worse than the last:
- 2023 → 2024: Down ~10%
- 2024 → 2025: Down 27.8%
- 2025 → 2026 (Jan): Down 43.9%
The trajectory isn’t flattening. It’s accelerating.
What’s driving this?
Multiple factors are compounding:
Product fatigue: The Model Y is now more than four years old in its current form. European buyers have plenty of fresher alternatives from BYD, Volkswagen, and others.
Brand damage: Elon Musk’s political activities have been particularly toxic in European markets, where his endorsements and commentary have alienated the environmentally-conscious buyer base that once formed Tesla’s core demographic.
Chinese competition: BYD and other Chinese automakers have been eating Tesla’s lunch across Europe. In the Netherlands, Tesla dropped from the top EV brand to fifth place in January.
Incentive changes: Several European countries have restructured or reduced EV incentives, and Tesla’s higher price points make it more vulnerable to these policy shifts than budget-focused competitors.
More data coming
These five countries represent just a portion of the European market. Data from the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, and others is expected over the next week. Given the trends, there’s little reason to expect better news.
Germany will be particularly telling, it was Tesla’s largest European market until the collapse, dropping 48% in 2025 alone.
We will keep you updated this week when more data comes in.
Electrek’s Take
We’ve been tracking this decline for over a year now, and every quarter the data confirms the same story. Tesla had a near-monopoly on the European EV market five years ago. Now they’re fighting for scraps against competitors with newer products, better prices, and, crucially, CEOs who aren’t actively alienating the customer base.
The new “standard” Model Y and Model 3 might help at the margins, but it’s arriving into a market where the brand itself has become toxic to many European buyers. You can have the best product in the world, but if people don’t want to be seen driving it, you have a problem that pricing and engineering can’t solve.
Two years of decline. Three consecutive years of falling volumes. And January 2026 is the worst start yet. When does Tesla hit bottom in Europe? Based on this data, we’re not there yet.
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