Tesla (TSLA) is expected to miss its delivery goal

Tesla (TSLA) is expected to miss its delivery goal for the quarter and the full year 2024, according to industry analysts.

Tesla hasn’t been releasing quarterly delivery goals for years. Instead, the automaker has been guiding a roughly 50% annual increase in deliveries, with some years less than that and others more.

However, Tesla had to give up on this general guidance in 2024.

Deliveries have been down for the first half of the year, making it impossible for Tesla to achieve 50% growth and hard to grow.

Nonetheless, Tesla surprised with its latest earnings by announcing that it still planned to achieve delivery growth in 2024:

Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024.

To deliver more than the 1.8 million vehicles it delivered in 2023, Tesla needs to deliver 515,000 vehicles in Q4. That’s significantly more than the 476,000 vehicles it delivered during the same period last year, which was also Tesla’s all-time quarterly delivery record.

The automaker is expected to release its delivery results on Thursday or Friday.

Tesla delivery expectations

Analysts have been updating their delivery expectations for Q4, and the consensus sits at 507,000 units.

It would be a new delivery record for Tesla, but it would fall short of the delivery goal of 515,000 units, which would also result in Tesla’s predicted “slight growth” for 2024.

We have been reporting on Tesla’s performance this quarter, and it looks like the automaker is doing well in China, which is its most important market, but it is having serious issues in Europe.

The US, which is a more opaque market, is likely going to make the difference.

Electrek’s Take

I don’t think deliveries will make a big difference this quarter. I think most people already see 2024 as a wash for Tesla deliveries.

As I previously stated, the Cybertruck was a mistake. Regardless of whether you like the truck or not, I think it’s clear that the Cybertruck will not contribute significantly to Tesla’s growth, and the focus on the program over the last few years has resulted in this pause in Tesla’s growth.

Instead, Tesla should have focused on cheaper electric vehicles, which seems to be the focus in 2025.