Filers are getting back even more money from Uncle Sam this tax season – and that bodes well for a slate of stocks, according to Bank of America. Tax season is well underway, having kicked in on Jan. 26, and the average tax refund check weighed in at $2,476 through Feb. 13. That’s an increase of 14.2% from a year earlier, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service . Analysts at Bank of America expect refund checks will continue to be larger compared with those of last year. “We think the gap in refunds vs 2025 will become even larger as tax season continues due to changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” wrote analyst Lorraine Hutchinson in a Wednesday report. Provisions in the “big beautiful bill” could result in about $1,000 of stimulus per household on average during tax season, Bank of America found. Key measures include a higher cap on the state and local tax deduction and a new deduction for overtime pay. Those two breaks in particular account for about half of the stimulus, leading to larger tax refunds and smaller tax payments, the bank found. Whether taxpayers spend or save the money, a few stocks could benefit. Discount retailers “Clothing was the largest beneficiary of tax refund spending last year for low-income households,” Hutchinson said. “We think this means retailers serving low/middle income consumers will see the largest lift in 2026.” The analyst pointed to Ross Stores as a buy-rated stock that could see a boost. Ross, which just hit a 52-week high on Friday, has surged nearly 12% this year. The stock has a current dividend yield of 0.8%. Consensus price targets per LSEG suggest Ross shares may be running out of steam, forecasting a 1% slip from current levels. Still, 13 out of 19 analysts rate the name a buy or strong buy. “We believe Ross deserves to trade at a premium to specialty retailers considering its ability to post outsized comps, its track record of being able to grow despite economic volatility, significant new store growth potential and a history of returning excess cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends,” Hutchinson wrote. The analyst also likes buy-rated Burlington Stores . Shares are up more than 8% in 2026, and Wall Street is bullish on the name. Consensus price targets call for nearly 10% upside from current levels. Spending and saving Customers who are feeling flush may also be inclined to deploy their refunds toward big-ticket items or to pay off outstanding debt, according to Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia. More than a third of participants in a Bank of America survey on annual payment priorities said they expect to use their tax refund to pay down debt, the firm said in another Wednesday report. Another 13% anticipate stashing the money in savings. That could be a boon for buy-rated Synchrony Financial , Bhatia said. The stock is off nearly 13% in 2026, but Wall Street remains upbeat on the name, with consensus price targets suggesting 25% upside from current levels, per LSEG. In all, 17 out of 23 analysts deem the stock a buy or strong buy. Synchrony also pays a current dividend yield of about 1.7%. “Upside risks are consumer balance sheets continue to hold strength and credit metrics remain strong,” Bhatia wrote. The analyst also sees buy-rated Bread Financial as a beneficiary. Shares are up just under 2% this year, and the stock has a dividend yield of 1.2%. Analysts polled by LSEG largely rate the stock hold, but consensus price targets call for more than 10% upside. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
