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The bottom is likely not in — and a retest of the lows is coming, chart analysts say

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
April 21, 2025
in Investing
The bottom is likely not in — and a retest of the lows is coming, chart analysts say
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The stock market has yet to find a bottom in the midst of tariff chaos and challenges to the Federal Reserve’s independence, leaving it susceptible to retesting its recent lows, according to chart analysts. Wall Street is off to another dismal start this trading week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point on Monday plunged by more than 1,300 points, with investors unsuccessfully searching for any good news on the trade front following an escalation of tensions with China over the weekend and as the White House challenged Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell. Chart analysts expect the risk remains to the downside, especially with the internal dynamics of the stock market showing a defensive tilt even after the S & P 500 ‘s recent comeback rally. Volatility, they say, will remain a mainstay of a market that is sensitive to tariff and Fed headlines. “Rallies can and will occur, but we think at a minimum more time is needed and a re-test of the 5000-5100 area is in the cards,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, wrote Sunday. `Market we have’ “We still get the sense that many assume a tweet about tariffs can erase all the damage that has been done, and we go back to the way things were a few months ago,” Krinsky continued. “We would say, trade the market we have, not the one we want. Right now the market we have continues to be defensive, and until that changes we want to respect it.” .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 so far in 2025. Krinsky, who expects the S & P 500 is at best range-bound for the foreseeable future, noted upside resistance for the S & P 500 is at 5,500 to 5,600. JC O’Hara, chief market technician at Roth MKM, said investors should take heed not to sound the all clear just yet, given the elevated level of uncertainty that remains around tariffs and the broader economy. Time is what stocks need most to recover from their recent losses, he said. “In our view, market signs point to a prolonged period of repair. Trend damage requires difficult work to repair. Levels of old support, which now act as resistance for plenty of equity charts, will be a challenge to overcome, especially with the lack of assistance from the Federal Reserve,” O’Hara wrote. “Overall we believe the Rupture was rapid, but the Repair will be unhurried.” Gold miners The technician noted “gold, gold, gold” is the place to be for investors seeking a safe haven, writing that gold mining stocks are starting to catch up to the price of the commodity — meaning the stocks could be a source of relative outperformance. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, recommends buying the dips and selling the rips in the stock market, urging investors to keep in mind their investment horizons to see where and when to add or reduce exposure. “We have greater conviction additional time duration is required than we do significantly lower prices. Said differently, we think ‘a’ low is forming and concurrently think it’s too soon to call it ‘the’ low. So while weakness is an opportunity for long-term accumulation, strength can also be used to sell weaker holdings over the near- to intermediate-term,” Wald wrote. “Similarly, identifying relative strength should prove more rewarding than timing the ebbs-and-flows of an erratic market bottom.” Wald, who expects resistance is in the 5,500 to 5,600 area for the S & P 500, called 4,800 a key support. He also noted gold mining stocks are cheap versus the underlying metal. He said both European and emerging market benchmarks are positive this year, with countries such as China and Brazil appearing the most compelling over the near term. Wolfe Research’s Rob Ginsberg sees greater opportunity for investors overseas rather than in the U.S., where risk-on assets continue to underperform. “U.S. markets, try as they might, leave us highly skeptical. While we were quick to call for a bounce two weeks ago following the low on April 7th, what’s followed has left much to be desired. This past week’s action is a good example, gains have been unable to be held, while up days have seen the likes of Utilities, Staples and Real Estate lead,” Ginsberg wrote Saturday. “If a true bounce was playing out, one would expect gains to be built upon with more cyclical groups leading higher.” “With 5400 resistance holding strong on the S & P, we’re starting to lose hope that this bounce has much left in the tank,” Ginsberg wrote. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!

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