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The Fed is expected to keep rates higher for longer. That’s good news for these investments

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
September 20, 2023
in Investing
The Fed is expected to keep rates higher for longer. That’s good news for these investments
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The Federal Reserve decided to stand pat on interest rates at the conclusion of this month’s policy meeting Wednesday, but yields are likely to remain high for an array of income-paying assets. Since the central bank kicked off its policy-tightening campaign in March 2022 – boosting interest rates 11 times – income investors have been benefiting from higher yields on Treasurys, money market funds and certificates of deposit. The Fed indicated it will hike rates one more time this year and then two cuts in 2024, two fewer than it previously indicated. Consider that the yield on the 2-year Treasury is 5.13% as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s up sharply from the 1.75% rate in mid-March 2022, according to LSEG. Savers are also making more money on their cash holdings, with the 5-year CD touting a 2.83% APY as of the week of Sept. 15, up from a modest 0.5% APY last March, per Haver. “It’s a great time for savers and the good times will continue to roll,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “Even if the Fed doesn’t raise anymore, rates will stay high.” Treasurys Investors can get compelling yields while playing it safe with Treasurys. The 6-month Treasury is currently yielding 5.5% while the 10-year has a rate of 4.3%. Yields move inversely to prices. Investors can ladder bonds to diversify maturities and reinvest proceeds from issues coming due into longer-dated bonds. US2Y US10Y 1Y line U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasurys A barbell strategy can be ideal when it comes to Treasurys, said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. On one end are shorter-dated bonds of up to three years, where investors can clip a pretty good coupon right now. On the other end are longer-dated bonds like the 10-year Treasury. “We think that even if rates were to go higher, you are probably about at the point of maximum pain on a price basis,” he said of the 10-year. “From here, even if rates go higher you are locking in some really good income.” Samana’s base case is for the Fed to stop hiking in the fourth quarter of 2023 or the first quarter of 2024. That is also when he expects long rates to peak. “Once they peak, we don’t see them coming down very quickly,” he said. Savings accounts and CDs Parking cash is paying off in this higher rate environment. High-yield savings accounts offered at online banks are paying upward of 4% on deposits. Synchrony Financial recently raised the APY it pays on savings accounts to 4.75%, while Bread Financial offers 5% on these idle cash deposits. Be aware that banks can revise these rates at any time, however. If you’re willing to sacrifice a little bit of liquidity, select banks will pay even higher yields. A one-year CD from Bread has an APY of 5.5%, and Sallie Mae is offering a yield of 5.1%. Morgan Stanley’s Betsy Graseck anticipates that the expenses banks incur to offer these CD yields will continue to rise, although at a calmer pace. “While bank deposit costs should keep rising through early 2024… the rate of increase should slow going forward,” she wrote in a Monday report. Drivers of those increases include higher-for-longer interest rates, and competition from Treasurys and money market funds, Graseck added. CDs permit investors to lock in yields, and investors who want to squeeze yield out of their short-term cash holdings can consider laddering these instruments. Further, investors have the option of shopping for brokered CDs , which can give them access to a wider selection of maturities to choose from. Money market funds Rates on money market funds have also jumped substantially since the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign started. The Crane 100 Money Fund Index has an annualized 7-day current yield of 5.16% as of Sept. 19. Investors continue to pour cash into these investments, with assets in retail money market funds rising by $10.14 billion to $2.12 trillion for the week ended Sept. 13, according to the Investment Company Institute . Underlying investments in these funds can range from Treasurys to municipal bonds to short-term corporate paper – the latter of which can give higher yields in exchange for some credit risk. As tempting as it may be to pile into these cash-like investments, investors should note that these yields likely won’t keep pace with inflation over the long run. Keep some of your money in CDs and money markets, but be sure to diversify your portfolio with an eye toward longer-term returns. – CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Nick Wells contributed reporting.



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