Despite a disappointing run so far this year, history shows Apple can regain momentum in the coming months. JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee pointed to the stock’s outperformance compared with the S & P 500 in all but one of the last seven years when looking at a timeframe beginning in June and ending in mid-September. That’s because investors typically grow excited into new iPhone releases. On average over the past seven years, Apple shares have rallied 18% in this time period. By comparison, the S & P 500 has risen less than 6%. That would be a welcome change for the personal technology giant, which has taken a beating this year as traders worried that the company’s high share of international manufacturing would hurt profit under President Donald Trump’s tariff plan. Apple shares have tumbled more than 19% in 2025, while the S & P 500 has risen more than 1% in the same period. Chatterjee also said investors have lukewarm expectations into the company’s well-known gathering called the Worldwide Developers Conference next week. Given that low bar, the analyst said shares can easily run up on any positive news out of the event. “We understand that changes in the narrative on tariffs can drive volatility in the share price,” Chatterjee said. “We believe low expectations from investors into WWDC this year, as well as for the iPhone 17 cycle, can set up the shares for a typical outperformance into the Fall iPhone launch timing.” AAPL .SPX YTD mountain Apple vs. S & P 500, year to date Chatterjee said Apple can “reassure” investors at this event through capability offerings that showcase the company’s relevance within artificial intelligence. He expects the stock could outperform if expectations improve for the iPhone 17’s volume cycle as the launch gets closer. On top of that, Chatterjee said any signs that the pinch from tariffs will be more modest than expected or indications that price elasticity concerns for the new iPhone have been overblown should help the stock see outsized gains. However, the lack of a trade deal between the U.S. and China can remain an overhang on the stock. Chatterjee is in the majority on Wall Street with a bullish rating on Apple, according to LSEG. The average analyst sees the stock climbing about 14% in the next year.
