Corpay Inc. (NYSE: CPAY) , formerly FleetCor Technologies, operates as a leading global corporate payments provider. The company delivers specialized solutions across vehicle payments (fleet fuel and maintenance), lodging payments and corporate payments (including cross-border transactions, accounts payable automation, and foreign exchange services). Corpay’s revenues are estimated at approximately $4.5 billion in FY2025, which will be confirmed (or not) when the company reports earnings this Wednesday after the close. The bull case rests on the company’s ability to shift its revenue mix decisively toward higher-growth Corporate Payments while maintaining a durable, cash-generative Vehicle Payments base (“vehicle payments” is what the company now calls its legacy fleet business). Presumably, this strategy accounts for the company’s name change, despite the legacy fleet business still representing a larger share of revenue: 51% for what used to be called “fleet” versus 31% for “CorPay”. (source: June 2025 Investor Presentation) Organic revenue growth has been accelerating throughout 2025, reaching 11% in Q3 — an improvement of 500 basis points year over year — led by the Vehicle Payments segment and particularly the U.S. business. This is important because tracking the company’s growth over the past five years based solely on the topline is complicated by considerable M & A activity. The company is a serial acquirer, which is acceptable, provided the transactions are accretive. Corpay completed the Alpha Group acquisition and acquired a 34% stake in AvidXchange, a $450 million revenue AP automation and payments solutions provider, with an option to buy the remainder. The company also divests some units; for example, most recently, it sold a unit to Mastercard for $300 million, which closed in early December 2025. Integrating acquisitions can be a source of concern; however, net debt has increased to approximately $6 billion as of quarter-ended Sept. 30 (we’ll see the latest figures this week). Free cash flow, which peaked at approximately $1.9 billion in FY2023, has declined but is expected to recover to just under $1.7 billion this year. Assuming that is achieved, it would represent a respectable 5.9% FCF/EV, although achieving that and the forecast $24.47 in adjusted EPS would require margins of ~33%, a feat the company has achieved only once in the past 10 years (FY2020). Even assuming the company maintains the same margins it has averaged since then, that would imply nearly $21 in adjusted EPS for FY2026, implying a forward PE of approximately 15x. Unfortunately, the “lit market” — that is, the posted bid/ask spreads in CorPay options — is fairly wide, which necessitates mid-market limit orders to achieve good fills. But you will notice that one of the reasons one might consider the use of a call spread risk reversal is illustrated by the graphic below. You will notice that the magnitude of downside risk illustrated by the payoff diagram to the right of the price chart is relatively small using this structure in the range of prices below where it is currently trading. That is, unless the stock falls considerably below the lower end of the six-month trading range relative to the profit opportunity if the stock performs well following earnings. Put differently, assuming one agrees with the bull thesis, one would participate more meaningfully (see a greater portion of the gains) on price increases from here than the amount of risk, at least for the first 10% or so of downside. DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
