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The two retail stocks with the most to lose from Canada and Mexico tariffs, per Goldman Sachs

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
March 5, 2025
in Investing
The two retail stocks with the most to lose from Canada and Mexico tariffs, per Goldman Sachs
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President Donald Trump’s latest tariff actions could lead to pressure on Kontoor Brands and Canada Goose , according to Goldman Sachs. The firm noted on Wednesday that global sourcing exposure to Mexico and Canada is most concentrated for those two names. It estimated that for Kontoor Brands, which makes Wrangler jeans, around 25% of its expected 2025 U.S. production volume is sourced from Mexico. For Canada Goose, Goldman estimated that it has around 80% of sourcing exposure to Canada. The U.S. on Tuesday implemented 25% tariffs on goods from both countries . Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau then announced a retaliatory tariff of 25% on U.S. products, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country would unveil measures of its own on Sunday. Shares of Kontoor Brands dipped about 1% on Wednesday, putting them on pace for their ninth straight losing session. Canada Goose was up more than 1%, but it has fallen in eight of the previous nine trading days. This year, Kontoor Brands has fallen more than 27%, while Canada Goose has shed more than 2%. KTB GOOS YTD mountain KTB vs. GOOS, year-to-date Goldman estimated that Kontoor Brands will see a full-year EBIT impact of $50 million with a 25% Mexico tariff. The firm also pointed out that the company is considering possible mitigatory actions, such as shifting production across the supply chain and increasing prices. While the firm did not specify the full-year earnings effect for Canada Goose with a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, it said the company anticipates utilizing pricing as the main offset, noting that Canada Goose is not looking at moving manufacturing to the U.S. Analysts are still bullish on Kontoor Brands, with four out of six analysts covering the apparel company giving it a strong buy or buy rating, per LSEG. Its consensus price target of roughly $88 reflects more than 41% upside from Tuesday’s close. However, Canada Goose is hold-rated among analysts. Out of the four covering it, two have a hold rating, while the other two have an underperform rating. Its consensus target of around $10 still implies more than 7% upside potential.



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