Threat to commercial shipping around Arabian Peninsula is rising, largest global shipowners organization warns

The world’s largest direct-membership organization for shipowners, charterers, shipbrokers, and agents is warning that while it is still unclear how Iran will respond to Saturday’s U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the threat to commercial shipping in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula has risen.

 “The Houthi threat against shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has also gone up,” said Jakob Larsen, head of security at Bimco, which represents global shipowners. “The Houthis now threaten merchant ships with affiliation to Israel or the U.S., but attacks against merchant ships with other affiliations cannot be ruled out.”

Larsen said it is expected that U.S. warships and merchant ships affiliated with Israel or the U.S. would be the preferred targets for the Iranians.

In an email to CNBC, a Hapag Lloyd spokesperson tells CNBC, “We currently are still crossing the Street of Hormuz. Alert level is high, though, and things might change by the hour.”

Integrated logistics provider Maersk announced Friday it is temporarily suspending port calls to Israel’s largest container port, Haifa. The $4.2 billion cargo facility at Haifa, owned by Adani Group, has been a target of Iranian missiles but has not suffered any damage. Last week, Jugeshinder “Robbie” Singh, CFO of the Adani, debunked misinformation posted that the port was on fire from a strike on Iranian social media.

Bimco’s Larsen warned Iran could attempt a wider disruption of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on merchant ships. Antiship missiles or drones of both airborne and surface types could be used in these attacks, he said.

“The laying of sea mines would constitute another dangerous development, but Iran’s intent to do so is questionable due to the risk to Iran-affiliated commercial ships and the risk of environmental disaster in case a ship is damaged,” said Larsen.

The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. The inability of oil to traverse through the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily, can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays. In 2023, oil flows through the waterway averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, accounting for about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

“Given the Iranian threat to U.S. military bases in the region, availability of warships for protection of commercial shipping is probably limited, especially for commercial ships with no affiliation to the U.S. or Israel,” Larsen said.

The Strait of Hormuz handles less than 4% of global container trade but the ports of Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan are critical intermediary points for global shipping networks in the region.

The majority of cargo volumes from those ports are destined for Dubai, which has become a hub for the movement of freight with feeder services in the Persian Gulf, South Asia, and East Africa.

The conflict in the region has also sparked ocean freight rates to surge from Shanghai to Jebel Ali, the Arabian Gulf’s largest port.

Freight intelligence firm Xeneta said average spot rates have increased 55% month-over-month, prior to the conflict escalation between Israel and Iran. Rates are now $2,761 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), a standard unit for measuring the capacity of container ships and volume of cargo.

On the tanker side, spot rates for very large crude carrier (VLCC) voyages between the Middle East and China are up 154% week-over-week. Rates on the long-range tankers’ (LR2) Middle East-Japan trade route are up 148% and Middle East-Japan very large gas carrier (VLGC) rates are up 33%.

The reason behind the increase in rates includes the added expenses on security measures, higher bunker fuel prices, and fuel costs as vessels use more fuel due to faster sailing through high-risk areas.

Marsh McLennan, the world’s largest marine insurance broker, noted hull and machinery insurance rates for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have increased by more than 60%.

In light of the latest wave of defense measures, Bimco is encouraging shipowners to review their security risk assessments and carefully consider mitigation measures.

“Merchant ships in the area should consider reducing their exposure to threats from Iran, for example, by routing away from the Iranian coast,” said Larsen. “We also recommend that ships maintain close contact to naval forces in the area through UK Maritime Trade Operations, maintain strong vigilance and increased lookout, report suspicious sightings and events to UKMTO, and increase the resilience of ships to absorb damage by ensuring watertight integrity and readiness of damage control organization including firefighting capability.”

“Bimco never directly recommends shipowners to completely stay away from a conflict area. Such a decision should be taken by the shipowner, taking into consideration all relevant factors of the security risk assessment, including, for example, the threat, the ship’s vulnerabilities, and the risk acceptance level of seafarers, the shipowner, and the cargo owner.”