U.S. crude oil has risen nearly 9% this week as traders fear Middle East supply disruption

U.S. crude oil is set to book a nearly 9% gain for the week, after President Joe Biden indicated that the White House is discussing a possible strike by Israel on Iran’s crude facilities in retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile strike earlier this week.

Oil prices would spike by $10 to $20 per barrel if an Israeli strike knocks out 1 million barrels per day of Iranian production over a sustained period, said Daan Struyven, head oil analyst at Goldman Sachs.

Just how high prices would go depends on whether OPEC uses its spare oil capacity to plug the gap, Struyven said.

Here are today’s energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate November contract: $74.07 per barrel, up 37 cents, or 0.50%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained more than 3%.
• Brent December contract: $78.11 per barrel, up 49 cents, or 0.63%. Year to date, the global benchmark has risen more than 1%.
• RBOB Gasoline November contract:  $2.0992 per gallon, up 0.0067%. Year to date, gasoline has fallen less than 1%.
• Natural Gas November contract: $2.924 per thousand cubic feet, down 1.55%. Year to date, gas is ahead about 18%.

Though oil prices have surged this week on geopolitical tensions, they have risen from a low baseline. Just last month, prices hit their lowest level in nearly three years as bearish sentiment swept the market on soft demand in China and plans by OPEC+ to increase production.

“The risk to the oil price outlook are definitely significant,” Struyven told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Friday. The oil market had largely ignored the escalating war in the Middle East until Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

“Geopolitical risk premium priced into oil markets until basically today was quite moderate,” Struyven said. Brent prices at around $77 per barrel are still below Goldman Sachs’ view of what constitutes fair value based on inventory levels, he said.

The risk premium has been modest because there haven’t been sustained supply disruptions over the past two years despite high geopolitical tensions, Struyven said. There is also about 6 million barrels per day of spare capacity on the sidelines that can come online and offset tightness from most supply disruption scenarios, the Goldman Sachs analyst said.