U.S. crude oil rises for third day, tops $83 per barrel after inflation eases, inventories fall

U.S. crude oil rose 1 % on Friday, topping $83 per barrel as consumer prices eased and inventories fall.

The recent oil rally has stalled out with West Texas Intermediate largely flat this week, ahead 0.38%, after booking four-straight weeks of gains.

But U.S. crude oil has found some momentum as the week comes to a close, after June inflation eased to around its lowest level in more than three years, bolstering hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

Here are today’s energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate August contract: $83.39 per barrel, up 77 cents, or 0.93%. Year to date, U.S. oil has gained 16.5%.
• Brent September contract: $85.95 per barrel, up 54 cents, or 0.63%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 11.6%.
• RBOB Gasoline August contract: $2.53 per gallon, up 1 cent, or 0.67%. Year to date, gasoline is up 20.5%.
• Natural Gas August contract: $2.27 per thousand cubic feet, little changed. Year to date, gas is down 9.5%.

“Whilst the lukewarm performance might have caused disappointment it is worth noting that the complex seems to be re-gaining its mojo,” John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a Friday note.

U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories also fell for the week ended July 5, in a sign that summer fuel demand may be finding some life. JPMorgan is forecasting that Brent will average $84 in the third quarter and $83 for the full year before drop into the mid-$60s in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“The view is underpinned by our expectations that both crude and liquids balances will tighten in the summer months, leading to significant stock draws,” Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities research, told clients in a Thursday note.

OPEC and the International Energy Agency once again sent conflicting demand signals. The cartel of producers is bullish, seeing demand increasing by 2.2 million barrels per day this year on solid economic growth. The bloc of largely Western states, on the other hand, sees demand growing just under 1 million bpd as the global economy softens, particularly in China.

Kaneva said mixed economic signals from China are raising questions about demand growth in the world’s second-largest economy. JPMorgan sees a global oil demand gain of 1.4 million bpd this year.

While Gulf Coast oil infrastructure largely avoided damage from Hurricane Beryl, weather forecasts at Colorado State University are expecting an “extremely” active storm season this year.