The 0.3% fall in UK GDP in April is another lesson in basic economics.
The contraction was partly due to the unwinding of the temporary boost in the first quarter, when manufacturers had brought activity forward to beat US tariffs.
There was a similar timing distortion in the data on legal services and real estate activities, as output fell back after a rush to complete purchases ahead of changes to stamp duty.
But there was a large drag too from the increases in staffing costs and in many household bills, which hit business and consumer confidence hard.
Some surveys suggest May might be less bad, especially with fears of a global trade war now receding. However, job losses appear to be accelerating, wage growth is slowing, and inflation has jumped, which will all continue to weigh on spending.
The three-month on three-month growth rate still looks good at 0.6%. But this figure will fall sharply in May and June as the comparison rolls on.
The recovery has clearly stalled. Growth in the second quarter as a whole is now likely to be close to zero, and government policies are at least partly to blame.
