There are growing signs that the residential property market is starting to slow as activity starts to lose momentum ahead of April’s stamp duty deadline.
According to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey, buyer demand weakened last month, although house prices did edge higher.
The latest RICS survey reveals a net balance reading of -14% for buyer demand in February, down from -1% in January. It marks the weakest reading since November 2023.
RICS acknowledged that the upcoming changes to the stamp duty thresholds are impacting decision-making, which is contributing to the slowdown.
From 1 April, stamp duty will be due on homes costing more than £125,000 (£300,000 for first-time buyers). Currently, the tax is only due on properties worth more than £250,000, or £425,000 for first-time buyers.
Simon Rubinson, RICS chief economist, said: “The UK housing market appears to be losing some momentum as the expiry of the temporary increase in stamp duty thresholds approaches. Some concerns are also being expressed by respondents about the re-emergence of inflationary pressures and the more uncertain geopolitical environment.
“That said, looking beyond the next few months, sales activity is seen as likely to resume an upward trend with prices also moving higher.”
Reflecting on the latest data from RICS, Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: “There’s no doubt that many brought forward buying decisions in view of the imminent withdrawal of the stamp duty concession. As a result, we have noticed in our offices demand – for flats not houses – has softened a little over the past few weeks as the deadline approached.
“No price correction is expected as underlying market strength remains sound. However, we know uncertainty is the enemy of investment so worries about the economy here and abroad as well as possible knock-on effects to inflation and interest rates will not help confidence.”
As far as lettings is concerned, he added: “Affordability is still acting as a check on rent rises but, lack of supply particularly of smaller flats and houses, has certainly prevented more substantial reductions in activity over the past few weeks. Fortunately, some flats freed up by tenants trying to buy, before becoming impossible for them to take advantage of the stamp duty concession, have bolstered availability and helped to maintain a more reasonable balance with continuing almost insatiable demand.”
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, highlighted that there has been a mood of risk aversion in global financial markets and among UK homebuyers in recent weeks.
He commented: “Donald Trump’s erratic trade policy and increases in German defence spending are two reasons beyond the control of the government that most UK mortgage rates remain above 4%, which is keeping demand in check. There is also uncertainty around what measures the UK government may announce in this month’s spring statement to increase its financial headroom, as well as the inflationary impact of some of its policies. Markets still expect two Bank of England rate cuts in 2025 and we still believe there will be single-digit house price growth, but some caution is understandable.”
