The latest UK Property Market Stats Show covering the week ending Sunday 22nd September 2024 features Alice Bullard (boss lady of Nested).
The main headlines: · Listings (New properties coming on to the market) – 37.4k UK listings this week (week 38), 38k the week before. 7.7% higher 2024 YTD than 2017/18/19 YTD average. 14.5% higher than Week 38 of 2023.
· Total Gross Sales – 26.4k UK homes sold stc this week (Week 38), which 25.2% higher than the same week (week 38) in 2023. Also, 7.1% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels & 13.2% higher than 2023 YTD levels.
· Net Sales – 19.7k this week (19.3k last week). 32% higher than the same week in 2023 & still 16.2% higher YTD in 2024 compared to YTD 2023.
· Percentage of homes exchanging vs homes unsold – Of the 1,091,884 UK homes that left UK Estate Agents books since the 1st Jan 2024, 582,642 of them (53.36%) exchanged & completed contracts (meaning the homeowner moved and the estate agent got paid). The remaining 509,242 (46.64%) were withdrawn off the market, unsold. In essence you a flip of the coin chance of actually selling, homeowners moving and the estate agent getting paid.
· UK House Prices – Mid / Late September figures suggest a slight jump in this important metric to £343/sq.ft. For comparison – August’s Figures for the Sale Agreed £/sq.ft was at £338/sq.ft, and July at £341/sq.ft. This means house prices are rising, albeit slowly.
· Sale fall-throughs – Sale Fall Thrus (as a % of Gross sales Agreed) dropped to 25.1% this week. The 7 year Long Term Average is 24.2% and it was 40%+ in the two months following the Truss Budget in the Autumn of 2022.
Chris’s In-Depth Analysis (Week 38) :
+ New Properties to Market: The UK saw 37,417 new listings. This year’s YTD listings stand at 1,342,395; 8.9% higher than the historical 8 year YTD average of 1,246,487, 7.7% higher than YTD 2017/18/19 and 8.1% higher YTD 2023. Just FYI – Weekly 2024 average : 35,326.
+ Average Listing Price: £460,259 (2024 weekly average – £440,261)
+ Average Asking Price of this week’s Listings vs Average Asking Price of the Properties that Sale Agreed this week: 24%. (Weekly 2024 average 22.2%).
+ Price Reductions: This week, 26,357 properties saw price reductions. Yet there are higher stock levels. Stock end of month August 2024 (latest data) levels are at 710k . This means that ONLY 1 in 6.5 properties each month are being reduced. Is that enough? I don’t think so!
+ Average Asking Price for Reduced Properties this week: £427,171. (2024 weekly average – £400,312)
+ Gross Sales: 26,357 properties were sold stc last week. 2024 weekly average : 24,757 Gross Sales).
+ Accumulative Gross Sales YTD: The total YTD stands at 940,772, exceeding the average YTD Gross sales figure of 875,910 from 2017/18/19 and 828,925 in the same week 38 in 2023.
+ Resi Sale Thru rate: (NEW MONTHLY STAT) : UK Estate Agents sold 15.13% of their Resi sales stock in August ’24 (next update in early Oct for September. The 7 year long term average is 17.9% per month – yet dont forget that was only in mid/late 20%’s in the crazy years of 20/21/22). A decent bellwether and good comparison is the 2017/18/19 average at 15.57% per month.
+ Average Asking Price of Sold STC Properties: Still staying in the £350/370k’s range (like has been for 2 years) at £371,074
+ Sale Fall Throughs: Fall thrus this week dropped to 6,627. YTD weekly average is 5,737.
+ Sale Fall Through % Rate: 25.1% for week 38. (Comparison – 25.5% for the last 3 months, whilst the long term 8 years average is 24.2% & it was 40%+ in Q4 2022 in the Truss budget!)
+ Sale Fall Throughs in the Month as a % of the total Sales Pipeline (NEW STAT) – Good news – this dropped from 5.66% in July to 5.39% in August. (8 year average 5.32%).
+ Net Sales (Gross sales this week less fall thrus this week) – 19,730 net sales, up from 19,284 last week.
+ Accumulative Net Sales YTD: The total stands at 722,765, 5% higher than the 17/18/19 YTD Net sales average (688,387) and 16.2% higher than the YTD figure for 2023 for Net Sales (622,264).
+ UK Resi monthly Sales Agreed as a % of monthly listings (NEW MONTHLY STAT) : 72.5% for August (latest stat). For comparison – 2024 YTD 70.6% and 2023 was 69.1% whilst the 5 year average 79.2%
+ Resi Sales Stock on the Market : 710k at end of August (down from 715k at end of July). For comparison, Aug ’23 – 646k, Aug ’22 – 478k, Aug ’21 – 421k, Aug ’20 – 674k, Aug ’19 – 652k.
+ Resi Sales Sold STC Pipeline (Units) : 504k at end of August. For comparison, Aug ’23 – 416k, Aug ’22 – 529k, Aug ’21 – 562k, Aug ’20 – 405k, Aug ’19 – 381k.
Local Focus this week was Woking
