In this week’s UK Property Market Stats Update for week ending Sunday, 10th November 2024 (week 45), the main headlines are as follow:
Listings (new properties coming on to the market) – 29.5k UK listings this week (week 45), an unexpected increase of 0.9k listings from last week. YTD 2024, listings are 11% higher compared to 2023 YTD.
Percentage of resi sales stock being reduced (monthly): 13% of Resi sales stock was reduced in the last month. 14% last month and long term 5 year average 10.6%.
Total gross sales – 24k UK homes sold stc this week (Week 45), identical to last week. 17.6% higher than the same standalone week (week 46) in 2023. Also, 8.2% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels & 14.9% higher than 2023 YTD levels.
Sale Through rate (monthly): UK Estate Agents sold 16.11% of their Resi sales stock in Oct ’24. Sept ‘ 24 was 14.79%. 2024 average is 15.86% & the 7 year long term average is 17.9% per month – yet don’t forget that was only in mid/late 20%’s in the crazy years of 20/21/22).
Sale fall-throughs – For the week 45, Sale Fall Thrus (as a % of Gross sales Agreed) increased to 28.7% (up from 26% last week). This slight uplift is probably down to an additional 600 sales fall thru because f the stamp duty changes. The 7 year Long Term weekly Average is 24.2% and it was 40%+ in the two months following the Truss Budget in the Autumn of 2022. Agents lost 5.8% of their sales pipeline in Oct’24 (up from 5.6% in Sept ‘ 24).
Net Sales – 17k this week (117.8k last week). 13% higher than the same week 45 in 2023, 69% higher than the same week 45 in 2022 & still 17.3% higher YTD in 2024 compared to YTD 2023.
% of Homes exchanging vs homes unsold – Of the 1,317,167 UK homes that left UK Estate Agents books since the 1st Jan 2024, 705,848 of them (53.59%) exchanged & completed contracts (meaning the homeowner moved and the estate agent got paid). The remaining 611,319 (46.41%) were withdrawn off the market, unsold. In essence you a flip of the coin chance of actually selling, homeowners moving and the estate agent getting paid.
UK House Prices – As explained in the show, the £/sqft figure foretells and predicts the Land Registry 5 months in advance with an accuracy rating of 92%. Final October figures saw a slight jump in this important metric to £346/sq.ft. For comparison – Sept’s £339/sq.ft, August’s £338/sq.ft, and July at £341/sq.ft. This means house prices are slightly growing.
Resi Sales Stock on the Market (Monthly Stat) : 725k at end of October (up from 724k at end of Sept). For comparison, Oct ’23 – 664k, Oct ’22 – 523k, Oct ’21 – 425k, Oct ’20 – 681k, Oct ’19 – 652k
Resi Sales Sold STC Pipeline (Units) (Monthly Stat): 505k at end of October. For comparison, Oct ’23 – 401k, Oct ’22 – 483k, Oct ’21 – 528k, Oct ’20 – 548k, Oct ’19 – 372k
Please note that that is no video this week as I have been away. Back to normal next week.
What is currently happening in the UK property market?
