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What is currently happening in the UK property market? – London Wallet

Mark Helprin by Mark Helprin
March 14, 2025
in Real Estate
What is currently happening in the UK property market? – London Wallet
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This week on the UK Property Market Stats Show, I am joined by the brilliant Rob Smith, group MD of Hunters, Whitegates & Northwood, as we delve into the key property market headlines for ninth week of 2025 ending on the 9th March 2025.

 

 

✅ Listings (New Properties on the Market)

39.8k new listings this week (last week 37.9k)

That’s 8% higher than Week 8 of 2024 YTD and 10% higher YTD compared to 2017/18/19. Graph 1 Graph 2

✅ Price Reductions (% of Resi Stock)

23.6k Price Reductions this week – meaning an approx run rate of 1 in 8 of Resi Sales stock per month is being reduced (12%).

For comparison, 12.1% average in 2024, though the long-term 5-year average is 10.6%.

 

✅ Total Gross Sales (Agreed Sales)

26.7k UK homes sold STC this week, slightly up from 27.6k last week in Week 8

That’s 16% higher YTD compared to 2024 and 25% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels.

✅ Sale-Through Rate (Monthly in Arrears)

February’s Run rate of 16.2% of Resi stock sold stc (ie 16.2% of Estate Agents properties on the market went sale agreed in February). For comparison, 16.7% of residential sales stock sold in February 2024. 2024 monthly average: 15.3%. Long-term 8-year average: 17.9%.

✅ Sale Fall-Throughs

6,506 Sale fall-thrus last week from Resi Sale Sales Pipeline of 451,074 homes sale agreed (sold stc).

Another method is that week’s sale fall thrus as a % of gross sales that week. This week, that is 24.3% (last week 22.3%). Just above the 7-year average of 24.2%, yet well below the 40%+ levels post-Truss Budget (Autumn 2022).

For February ’25 as a whole, 5.48% of sales in the UK agents pipelines fell thru in Feb 25. For comparison, 2024 average: 5.36%.

✅ Net Sales (Gross sales for the week less Sale Fall Thrus for the week)

20.2k net sales this week, compared 2025 weekly average of 19.6k.

2025 YTD is 13% higher than compared to 2024 YTD and 19% higher than YTD 2017/18/19.

✅ Exchange to Withdrawal ratio

The running two year average is 54% – ie for every 100 houses that come onto the market, 54 or just over one and two) proceed through to exchange and completion. The remaining 46, come off the market unsold.

✅ Residential Sales Stock on the Market

675k properties on the market on the 1st March 2025 (monthly stat taken on the first day of the month).

Historical comparison for end of January :

2024: 623k
2023: 548k
2022: 399k
2021: 518k
2020: 614k
2019: 628k
2018: 567k
2017: 528k.

✅ Residential Sales Sold STC Pipeline

451k sales agreed in Estate Agents Sales Pipeline (ie sold stc but not yet completed) as at the 1st March 2025 (monthly figure)

Historical comparison for January :

2024: 376k
2023: 349k
2022: 464k
2021: 446k
2020: 334k
2019: 303k
2018: 291k
2017: 282k.

✅ UK House Prices (£/sq.ft)

As always, the £/sq.ft metric predicts Land Registry figures 5 months in advance with 92% accuracy (the orange line of the graph).

February’s final figure: £340/sq.ft.

January ’25 : £342/sq.ft
December ’24 : £339/sq.ft
August ’24: £334/sq.ft
February ’24: £335/sq.ft

This means UK house prices achieved in Feb 25 were 0.39% lower than Jan 25, yet 1.64% higher than a year ago (Feb 24).

Local Focus this week – Braintree

 





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