What tie-ups in the U.S. oil patch could mean for players like Coterra Energy

Exxon Mobil ‘s (XOM) planned deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has sparked talk of more consolidation in the oil-and-gas industry. While we don’t own companies as mergers-and-acquisition plays, the potential for more tie-ups could have significant implications for our remaining oil name: Coterra Energy (CTRA). It’s unclear which shoe will drop next now that Pioneer — the largest independent producer in the Permian Basin, a key U.S. oil field in West Texas and New Mexico — is effectively off the market in an all-stock deal valuing the company at roughly $60 billion . But analysts expect the acquisition by Exxon, the most valuable U.S. oil-and-gas company at nearly $450 billion in market capitalization, to have ripple effects on producers of all sizes. “Consolidation is critical for the sector. It’s healthy. It’s needed, and I think you’ll see more of it,” said Gabriele Sorbara, an analyst at Siebert Williams Shank & Co. The consolidation could take multiple shapes, as companies seek scale and bolster the amount of quality land they own to drill on in the future. On the one hand, investors are looking at bigger U.S. players such as Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP), wondering whether they’ll follow Exxon’s lead and acquire smaller exploration-and-production (E & P) firms. Chevron’s market cap is around $324 billion, while ConocoPhillips is worth roughly $152 billion, based on Thursday’s stock prices. Another possibility could be that E & P companies further down the valuation ladder choose to pursue deals that make their own inventory positions more attractive to investors, according to Nitin Kumar, senior analyst at Mizuho Securities. Companies in this basket could include Coterra, Devon Energy (DVN) and Diamondback Energy (FANG). Coterra is valued at roughly $22.4 billion Thursday, while Devon and Diamondback are valued at $31.7 billion and $30.5 billion, respectively. “I’m not proposing there’s going to be a big wave of M & A, necessarily. But if scale is what matters, your options are limited,” Kumar said. He added: “You can choose to either go your own way…you can look at the small public guys and pick off a few assets there, or you could look at mergers of equals and say, ‘Hey look, let’s two of us get together and now we create a competitive position with 800,000, 900,000 acres into play.'” That would be roughly on par with Pioneer’s more-than-850,000 acres in the Permian Basin. “All those should be options that these guys should be thinking about strategically,” Kumar argued. Devon Energy is reportedly doing just that. In recent months, the Oklahoma City-based company has held preliminary talks with Marathon Oil (MRO) about a potential tie-up , Bloomberg reported after the close Wednesday , citing people familiar with the matter. Houston-based Marathon is valued at nearly $18 billion, as of Thursday. Devon has also eyed privately held CrownRock, which operates in the Permian, according to Bloomberg. In recent years, publicly traded E & P companies have adopted a more muted approach to production growth — bowing to investor pressure after spending heavily to pump more oil in the 2010s proved unkind to energy stocks as crude prices pulled back. Now, the priority is generating more sustainable cash flows that can be returned to investors through buyback programs and dividends. The shift has generally been positive for the stock prices of oil companies. Expense reduction is another way to satisfy investors, and is likely a major motivation behind any further consolidation that might occur in the sector, said Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng. Smaller companies may not solve their inventory backlog problems by combining, Cheng said, “but that certainly could provide them additional room to reduce costs.” At the time the Exxon-Pioneer deal was announced, Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust owned a position in Pioneer. We sold our entire stake Monday, and will consider redeploying some of the cash into Coterra on future pullbacks in its stock price. Our investment in Coterra has been rooted in its attractive fundamentals as an E & P play with sizable exposure to both oil and natural gas — not its viability as a takeover target, or even a buyer itself. Indeed, owning Coterra in the hopes that a larger company may swoop in and offer a big premium would not be a wise strategy. That’s because a substantial premium might never materialize — as we saw with Exxon’s valuation of Pioneer. The industry’s newfound restraint on production makes it harder to justify paying up for a company, analysts say, compared with the premiums paid in the early days of the U.S. shale boom a decade ago. “If you go back to 2014, 2016, in those deals it was asset acquisition driven by growth. Today, it’s asset acquisition driven by not volume growth, but cash flow sustainability and longevity. It’s a little bit of a different motivator,” Mizuho’s Kumar said. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CTRA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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Permian Basin rigs in 2020, when U.S. crude oil production dropped by 3 million a day as Wall Street pressure forced cuts.

Paul Ratje | Afp | Getty Images