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What Wall Street is expecting from Apple’s iPhone event

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
September 9, 2025
in Investing
What Wall Street is expecting from Apple’s iPhone event
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Wall Street is looking to see if Apple’s upcoming iPhone launch will spark sales and renew investor enthusiasm for the beaten-down stock. Apple is expected to debut the iPhone 17 models on Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET. In a tagline, the company said the online event, which has been prerecorded in recent years, will be “awe dropping.” Analysts expect the iPhone 17 to feature different models, including the Base, Pro, Pro Max and what could be a new line, the ultrathin iPhone Air. Several analysts are bullish about the iPhone Air’s potential, as its reported base price is higher than previous models and it could have a notable design change. Others are wary about demand, however. Analysts are also expecting Apple to debut new Apple Watch models and an updated AirPods Pro model. While they are looking forward to seeing the new suite of Apple devices, the event is not expected to answer investors’ biggest questions on what Apple’s artificial intelligence strategy is. The market remains hopeful that Apple could strike a deal with Alphabet to use Google’s Gemini AI models for an updated version of its iPhone. Shares of Apple jumped last week after a federal judge ruled in Alphabet’s antitrust case that the company can continue making payments to preload Google Search onto the iPhone. AAPL 1Y mountain Apple stock performance over the past year. Apple shares are up more than 2% this month, but remain down 5% year to date. Take a look at what some of the biggest names on the Street are watching for at Tuesday’s event: Morgan Stanley Conservative fiscal year 2026 growth expectations for the company “could make the launch a positive catalyst, for once,” analyst Erik Woodring said. However, he said it’s likely the event won’t include any information, particularly on AI, that would be a surprise to investors. Woodring said he wants to know more about Apple’s pricing strategy. If prices move higher for the iPhone, it would be the first time in seven years, he said, adding he expects the iPhone 17 Air could cost $100 more than the iPhone 16 Plus. “In our view, what needs to be settled before shares can regain more momentum is clarity on Apple’s AI strategy, which recent reports indicate is slowly emerging following a shake-up of the Apple Intelligence team earlier this year. All this goes to say, Apple still needs to execute, but the path to outperformance is getting clearer to us, and what will matter most at next week’s iPhone launch event is pricing, a still under-appreciated growth tailwind,” Woodring, who has an overweight rating and $240 price target on Apple, said in a Sept. 4 note. Wells Fargo Wells Fargo has an overweight rating on Apple and a price target of $245, which suggests shares could gain just 3% from Monday’s close. Analyst Aaron Rakers said he expects price points on the iPhone 17 models to support revenue upside of between 3% and 5%. “We expect a focus on whether Apple’s new iPhone 17 Air ultra-thin form factor will stimulate incremental demand relative to prior releases,” Rakers wrote in a Sunday note, adding that upcoming catalysts for the stock include the upcoming iPhone launch, monthly smartphone data points and fiscal fourth-quarter results. UBS Analyst David Vogt has a neutral rating and 12-month price target of $220 on Apple shares, implying more than 8% potential downside for the stock. The analyst is watching for any implicit price increase for the iPhone 17 Pro, as he believes it could risk iPhone demand. “While we acknowledge that a thinner device would introduce a relatively new form factor for the iPhone, we think that it will have a muted impact on consumer purchasing decisions and thus, limited upside to our iPhone forecasts for the Sept and Dec quarters. Considering that only incremental software updates were announced at WWDC25 in June, we do not expect material announcements regarding Siri Apple Intelligence features until next spring,” Vogt said in a Sunday note to clients. “Like the impact of new hardware, we do not anticipate a pick up in iPhone demand given stand-alone AI applications are already available in the smartphone market.” Evercore ISI Analyst Amit Daryanani is bullish that this iPhone launch will be the first of many design changes from Apple. He has an outperform rating and $250 price target on the stock. “We think the launch of the iPhone 17 Air would mark a notable change in Apple’s recent iPhone strategy and could be the start of what believe is a multiyear road map of notable design changes. In addition, we think the Air model will help to reinvigorate demand and drive additional refresh,” Daryanani wrote in a Sept. 2 note. “We think Apple could release its first foldable iPhone as early as next year and in 2027, Apple could release a curved glass “anniversary” iPhone to mark 20th anniversary of the iPhone. Outside of the iPhone, we think AAPL may debut new Apple Watch models, including the potential for a new Ultra model, and announce the launch of iOS26.” Citi Analyst Atif Malik, who has a $245 price target on Apple shares, noted that global smartphone demand remains sluggish, but Apple appears to be outperforming on unit expectations amid tariff concerns. “While iPhones historically benefit from new formfactors, we view the upcoming Air model and the iPhone 17 family largely pointing to an evolutionary product refresh cycle. We expect next year’s trio of product launches (Advanced Siri, Foldable Phone, Vision Pro 2) to drive stronger replacement cycles … We believe Apple will continue to work on its own Foundation Models, partner with other LLM providers, and is open to M & A to accelerate the AI roadmap,” Malik said in a Sept. 1 note.

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