Wall Street has continued to rattle off some new record highs in October, but the absence of one major index from the list is starting to become glaring, according to Raymond James. Quantitative and technical strategist Javed Mirza pointed out in a note to clients that the Nasdaq 100 has not set a record high since July. The relative struggle of that tech-heavy index is possibly a sign that the broader bull market is on the verge of entering into a new phase — and getting close to a peak, according to Mirza. “The Nasdaq 100 is a good proxy for the more ‘growthy’ areas of the market and this negative divergence suggests that Portfolio Managers have begun to shift away from the more growth-oriented areas of the market, consistent with a shift into the late stages of the current 4-Year Cycle. The Nasdaq 100 has failed to reclaim the highs it set in July, despite the S & P 500 , TSX Composite, and Dow Jones Industrials all scoring new all-time price highs,” Mirza wrote. .NDX 6M mountain The Nasdaq 100 has not set a new record high since July. On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 was trading about 2% below its record close. Technical indicators suggest that it won’t close that gap any time soon. “The Nasdaq 100 just triggered a new short-term ‘mechanical sell’ signal, diverging from the other North American equity indices,” Mirza said. The Nasdaq 100’s slump is not the only factor pointing to toward a new phase for the bull market. Other notable data points include the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) making higher lows and the Canadian TSX Composite outperforming the S & P 500, while WTI crude pushing above $94 per barrel would be a fourth point, Mirza wrote. To be sure, even the late stage phases of a bull market can last for quite a while. Mirza does say that the “path of least resistance” is still higher for stocks overall heading into 2025.
