Bitcoin gained around 1.5% today, reclaiming the $109,000 level after four consecutive days of decline.
The modest rebound comes as traders attempt to stabilize positions following a period of heavy selling and volatility.
Despite this slight recovery, market confidence remains fragile as Bitcoin continues to face crosscurrents from both macroeconomic and internal market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s latest rebound appears more like a corrective move within a broader downtrend, as weak long build up, elevated volatility, and ongoing futures liquidations highlight traders’ caution.
With interest rate uncertainty, fragile equity sentiment, and unresolved U.S.–China trade tensions clouding the macro backdrop, risk appetite remains constrained.
Without clear signs of renewed accumulation or institutional inflows, the recovery is likely to stay limited and prone to reversal.
Futures market data underscores this caution. According to CoinGlass, nearly $1 billion worth of long positions were liquidated yesterday alone, with Bitcoin accounting for $377 million.
Since Monday, total liquidations have approached $2 billion. Futures traders appear to be rebuilding exposure very slowly after the historic deleveraging event that took place 20 days ago. The total open interest in crypto futures remains around $160 billion, down more than 30% from the record $233 billion, signalling that speculative leverage has not yet recovered.
Spot market dynamics tell a similar story. De-accumulation has accelerated further, with Bitcoin’s on-balance volume slipping to its lowest level since April, suggesting limited conviction among spot buyers.
According to SoSo Value, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen roughly $1 billion in net outflows since Wednesday, indicating a softening of institutional demand that had been a key driver of price resilience.
This cautious tone in crypto markets reflects the broader weakness across global equities. According to The Wall Street Journal, major U.S. indices declined as technology shares led the sell-off. Meta and Microsoft dropped 11.3% and 2.9%, respectively, after announcing plans for significant increases in artificial intelligence spending, which is a move investors perceived as unsustainable. “None of these companies can keep up this huge spending on AI forever,” said David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, in comments to WSJ.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks introduced fresh uncertainty regarding the outlook for monetary easing. Powell signalled that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, prompting a sharp rise in Treasury yields and stalling the stock market rally.
The CME FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of a December 25-basis-point cut dropped from over 90% to below 70% following his comments.
Although the Trump–Xi meeting brought partial tariff reductions, the market’s focus remained on Powell’s cautious tone, which reinforced expectations of tighter financial conditions.
According to The Journal, despite the temporary U.S.–China trade truce, structural tensions between the two economic powers remain deeply entrenched. Tariffs on Chinese goods, though reduced, remain historically high, and China continues to enforce opaque export restrictions on critical minerals. The enduring rivalry over technology, of spanning AI, semiconductors, and supply chain dominance, keeps the geopolitical landscape unsettled, ensuring that trade-related uncertainty will continue to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin.
An opinion piece by The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board argues that President Trump’s recent trade truce achieved little more than a temporary pause in economic strain. The Editorial describes the deal as politically timed and strategically hollow, with minimal gains for the U.S. It emphasizes that China’s leverage over rare-earth minerals and its resilience in trade negotiations left Washington with limited advantages. The Board highlights that the administration’s unilateral approach alienated key allies, weakening America’s ability to counterbalance Beijing’s power.
Altogether, Bitcoin’s recent price stabilization around $109,000 represents a technical reprieve rather than a structural turnaround. The combination of persistent futures liquidation, soft institutional demand, and continued de-accumulation leave the market vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. A more durable recovery will likely depend on improved liquidity conditions, confirmation of monetary easing, and clearer progress in global trade relations. All these factors remain uncertain, for now.
