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The Federal Reserve has telegraphed the kickoff of their interest rate cutting campaign to begin next week. However, equity markets are wrestling with the manner in which they will begin. I believe a quarter-point interest rate cut is their first step but, a half-point interest rate cut (which has the ability to roil markets) has recently been floated strongly. I believe markets sell-off regardless due to either disappointment with just quarter pont or panic reaction with the severity of half-point. I want to buy insurance headed into this historic Fed meeting, using the high-beta Invesco QQQ Trust . The recent volatility has stirred investor emotion. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 6% last week and is now up nearly 5% this week, these are not normal market conditions. Led primarily by the investor loved AI theme, the QQQ is now back up over 15% year-to-date. Profit taking since early August has questioned the path forward for tech inside the uncertainty surrounding the Presidential election less than eight weeks out. QQQ YTD mountain Invesco QQQ Trust, YTD The Cboe Volatility Index , yet elevated, is not showing current signs of panic. The VIX is just under 20, and far below its recent high of 65. The trade The CME Fedwatch tool is narrowly favoring a 25 basis point interest rate cut but, it is oddly closer to a coin toss than it was last week. I say this is odd since core CPI rose 3.2% from a year earlier and 0.3% on a monthly basis, hotter than expectations. Bought the QQQ 9/27/2024 $470 Put for $6.25 This was executed when QQQ was roughly trading $473 Cost is $625 per one put option I utilized a short-term (two week) expiration as this insurance is expensive and I believe the Fed reaction will materialize within this time frame. The risk in this trade is defined by the amount of premium paid for the put option and QQQ needs to fall under $463.75 for this put option to pay off. DISCLOSURES: (Long this put, long QQQ) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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