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An options trade to protect against persistent macro uncertainty

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
October 13, 2025
in Investing
An options trade to protect against persistent macro uncertainty
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Even after a roughly 3% pullback from all-time highs, S & P 500 ( SPX or SPY ) put spreads remain an attractive way to hedge equity exposure. Of course, the difficulty is that several markets continued sharply lower even after the U.S stock market closed on Friday. Nikkei futures, for example, have fallen ~ 3,600 points or ~7.4% from Friday’s intraday high as I write this. To put this in perspective, based on the implied volatility, this was a one-day move of over 5 standard deviations. By contrast, Friday’s move in the S & P was just under three. Volatility pricing and skew Closing at over 25 on Friday, the VIX is elevated relative to its summer lows. However, compared to moves we’re seeing in some risk assets (and markets like Japan), it’s clear that investors are in a sell-first, ask questions later mindset. That means portfolio insurance is still not overly expensive compared to periods of genuine stress. Importantly, the volatility skew — the difference between implied vol on out-of-the-money puts and at-the-money options — remains elevated. This makes vertical put spreads (buying a put closer to the money and selling a lower strike put) efficient: the short leg helps finance the long protection by monetizing the richer skew. For instance, an investor concerned about further downside might buy the 2% out-of-the-money put and sell one approximately 8% lower, establishing a spread that caps potential profits but dramatically reduces upfront cost. The trade pays off if the S & P drops more than this initial correction investors have already endured — a realistic tail scenario if earnings or growth surprises disappoint. Macro uncertainty persists The flare-up in U.S.-China trade relations demonstrates that the macro backdrop remains fraught with uncertainty. Real yields are still high, fiscal deficits remain historically large, and Fed rhetoric has only tentatively shifted toward easing. Some corporate margins, which have proven remarkably resilient, could compress if demand softens. Before overreacting, consider that a few companies such as Nvidia , Broadcom , and Meta have significantly boosted the index’s overall earnings. Hyperscalers such as Microsoft are unlikely to reduce capital expenditure due to minor equity downturns or cryptocurrency volatility. However, a weak payroll report or an earnings miss from a major company could turn this 3% drop into a full-blown correction (a 10% peak-to-trough decline). In that context, hedging even after a dip like Friday’s can still make sense. Historically, the first 3–5% declines in bull markets rarely see implied vol spike to protective levels — it’s often the next leg down, when positioning gets stretched or sentiment turns, that produces nonlinear payoffs for hedgers. It’s also worth noting that the S & P futures were resting right on the 50-day moving average. If the market falls below that, it loses a level of support. Defined risk and efficient capital use A put spread, unlike outright long puts, is a capital-efficient hedge. It defines the maximum loss (the net premium) while allowing meaningful participation if the market declines further. The example I provide here costs ~ 1% of the underlying (as of Friday’s closing prices anyway) and would offer some protection if the market falls to ~$600 in SPY, which would represent the threshold of formal correction territory (a > 10% decline from the prior highs). DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.

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