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Apple could report a larger-than-expected margin hit in its second-quarter earnings report on Thursday, as investors look for insight into how the iPhone maker is planning to navigate tariffs, according to Evercore ISI. Analyst Amit Daryanani estimates Apple will guide down its gross margin forecast by 50 to 100 basis points quarter over quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of a 40 basis point decline. “We do not expect them to speculate on the impact beyond Jun-qtr or to take a stance on where tariff rates will ultimately settle for the longer term,” Daryanani wrote in a Monday note. “They will likely still provide a Jun-qtr guide and the gross margin expectation should give us an early indication of how tariffs will impact the bottom line.” The analyst reiterated an outperform rating on Apple and maintained a $250 per share price target. Daryanani’s forecast calls for roughly 19% upside from Monday’s $210.14 close. AAPL YTD mountain Apple stock in 2025. Shares have pulled back more than 15% in 2025, as Trump’s tariffs on China have weighed on the stock given Apple’s dependence on the country for production. In response to the tariffs, Apple has floated the prospect of moving more of its production to India, although such a move faces its own challenges . The unmitigated ramifications of tariffs at the levels put in place by President Donald Trump would result in a roughly 200 basis point hit to Apple’s gross margin, Daryanani said, with 10% of the hit coming from India and Vietnam and 20% from China. Daryanani noted that he expects several mitigating factors to soften the blow both in Thursday’s quarterly results and beyond. One likely move is for Apple to raise prices for its next iPhone lineup if the current tariffs stay in place beyond September. The analyst also noted that Apple likely stocked up on enough inventory in recent months to service at least half the June quarter’s demand. The company reportedly airlifted $2 billion worth of iPhones into the U.S. in March, just before Trump’s ” liberation day ” announcement. “We also think FX should be an offset and Apple may be able to pass off some costs on suppliers,” he added. Analysts polled by FactSet estimate Apple will report earnings of $1.62 per share on revenue of $94.1 billion.
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